Time Watch

Founder already said TW is way undervalued..only very few believe him. I pump all my cash in to TW after visiting their HK outlets and POS in many cities in PRC.....happy with the profit....sure if daul listing will be a lot better!

Time Watch share volume amounted to 21.5 m shares on Jan 20 & 21 (the 2 days of trading after it announced delisting proposal at 27 cents).

Note the following 2 points:

1) The volume (5.6% of the company’s issued capital) looks very low, which led my friends & I to form an interesting view that Time Watch may have to raise its offer price.

2) On Jan 20, 21, 22 and today (ie, Thurs-Sunday), there has not been any announcement of the Offerer accumulating stock, which is surprising.

Even if we assume it did buy those shares, it only means the Offeror now has 62% + 5.6% of the company = 67.6%.

This is still a long way from the 90% level where the Offerer can exercise its right to compulsorily acquire all outstanding shares.

It’s early days, but my hunch currently is that the Offerer will not be able to get to the 90% level without raising its offer price beyond 27 cents.

Why should it bother to do so, u may ask? The Offerer, ie the Chairman Tung, is likely to want to re-list the stock in HK, its home grounds, at a higher PE – maybe 2X or 3X current valuation of 5-6.

Without getting to 90% and do compulsory acquisition of the remaining 10%, he cannot delist from SGX. The low liquidity of the stock that he complained about will get even worse – so it’s pointless to maintain a listing and pay the relevant SGX fees.

No, clearly he has every reason to get to 90% but at the current pace, he ain’t gonna make it. The market is not dumb – it knows that the offer price is dirt cheap and, going by the low volume of the past 2 trading days, the market is holding out for a higher offer price.

Chairman Tung, how about 35-37 cents? Fair & reasonable hongbao?

Very good analysis. His asset can easily double over night when TW go re-list in HK....Man Wah is a good example......He had done his analysis and perpare for thsi delisting for about 1 year and I'm sure delisting will give him maximum gain at a slightly higher risk. The possibility of a higher price is high as TW can be easily re-list at almost double of the exit price!

1st trading day after delisting plan announcement: 19.1 million share turnover.

2nd day: 2.4 million

3rd day (3.30 pm today so far): 0.75 million shares.

At this rate, Mr Tung definitely has to raise his takeover price from 27 cents.

Too cheap at PE of only 5X. Am sure the interim results in a few weeks' time will also show that how cheap his offer price is relative to earnings growth.

Dello, major bite at 5 m shares this morning. 

Is this Mr Tung in action? Or someone who wants to challenge Mr Tung and is is confident that Time Watch has to up its offer price???? 

Thank you for your posting Fish. 

I took a look at the buy-sell queues. Something is brewing, cos it's most unusual to find such a big buy queue so close to the takeover price - that means, queueing to buy 26.5 cents is odd when the takeover price is 27 cents.

This 26.5 cent queue could be a competing offeror in the future.....

Or it could be Mr Tung himself trying to attract sellers since there has been very low trading volume since takeover plan was announced.

But looking at trades done at 26.5 cents, it appears to be very low too. Holy cow, it could mean the market doesnt want to sell out just yet and is wwaiting for a higher offer price.