To date, I estimated there were 46 million share that were transacted from Day 1 after announcement of delisting plan.
46 m shares = 12.3% of the issued share capital.
Assuming that all these shares were sold to Mr Tung (the Offeror), then he would have 74.3% (ie, 62 + 12.3%).
Still a long way to go to 90% for compulsory acquisition so he can re-list in HK.
I believe he won’t get to 90% without raising the offer price. If you look at the volume of shares transacted daily, you will know what I mean. The volume has shrunk tremendously.
The reason, I believe, is the owners of the remaining 25.7% of the shareholdings are holding out for a better price than the offered 27 cents.
At 27 cents, the stock is doing about 6X PE on a 12-month trailing basis.
Great if the delisting is NOT successful as the next best choice will be dual listing!! Investors in HK and PRC are very familiar with Tian Wang -- the NO 1 best selling brand in PRC!!
Mr Bestworld, put yourself in the shoes of Mr Tung and you will understand why he must delist Time Wach. He now in on a path of no return because the stock has become even more illiquid after accumulating the shares in line with his delisting plan. He has to march forward to capture 90% - so that he can delist it and go to HK.
However, he must be concerned now as he is not able to accumulate more shares from the market. Today, you see only 21 lots were traded and went to the buyer at 26.5 cents. The remaining 25% of the shareholdings who hve not surrendered are still waiting for a better price, I am sure. Mr Tung will have to surrender
he will up his offer price, I am sure.
Unless share price moves above 27c...the chance for delist is very very high!!!! If you have been tracking TW.....prior to the announcement, there is already programmed buying at around 19c-20c level. Who bought all those shares?
following the various postings on TW. Is it possible for Mr Tung not to delist at all since he cannot get the required %age??? Anyway, is it wise to buy at .27cts now and take a risk? Thanks for sharing.
It's possible that the next step Mr Tung will make is to queue at 27 cents, which could attract a lot of sellers. But even then, he may or may not reach 90%, cos if it were just a 0.5 cent difference, a lot of shareholders would be selling now to him at 26.5 cents. What's half a cent when there is great opportunity cost holding in a bull market?
So let's say he still doesnt get his 90% after moving up to 27 cents. Then he has to up the offer significantly to maybe 30+ cents - this requires a new set of documents so you can forget about him doing it in minor increments such as first go to 28 cents.
One shot, he must get his 90%. Ok, let's look at another scenario - what are the chances that he refuses to up his offer and so he won't delist ? That means the free float of the stock is going to be very thin - inthe past Time Watch was thinly traded, it is going to be worse. No, I think he will decide to pay up and then reach 90% and then compulsory acquisition and then..... the Magic Land that he probably is dreaming of - a listing on HK
