YANGZIJIANG and SWISSCO: What analysts now say

Excerpts from analysts' reports

Credit Suisse highlights improving fundamentals for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's core business

Analyst: Gerald Wong, CFA

ship_launch Yangzijiang management noted active enquiries for new vessels, and expects order momentum to remain strong in 2H14. NextInsight file photo

We hosted a lunch with Yangzijiang where management outlined its strategy for growth. The company aims to move up the value chain and is targeting orders for larger and more complex vessels, including 14,000-16,000 TEU containerships and LPG carriers.

Management noted active enquiries for new vessels, and expects order momentum to remain strong in 2H14 as its strong financial position leads to a disproportionate share of new orders. Firm newbuild prices are also likely to support shipbuilding margins.

With improving fundamentals for its core shipbuilding business, total investment in non-shipbuilding businesses will be brought down from a peak of Rmb16 bn and capped at Rmb13 bn. We expect a gradual decline in its total held-to-maturity (HTM) assets to Rmb12 bn by end-2014. Potential M&A opportunities could lead to a further reduction in HTM assets.

We increase our 2014-16E EPS by 7-21%, driven by expectations of higher orders and shipbuilding margins. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price of S$1.50.

For other analysts' target prices, click here.

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CIMB confident of Swissco's "ability to secure new rig contracts at an accelerated pace"

Analysts: Lim Siew Khee & Yeo Zhi Bin (picture, left)

ADD - Maintained | S$1.00 /TP S$1.44

Swissco has announced plans to raise a total of US$42.847m through the issuance of 43.95m redeemable exchangeable preference shares to several private equities and individuals. The proceeds will be used to fund two new rigs, and an announcement of the contracts should follow. The formation of four new subsidiaries, by the names of Supreme Excellence 1-4, is also a big giveaway that two other rigs could be added soon. This further affirms our confidence in management’s ability to secure new rig contracts at an accelerated pace. Pending the announcement of contracts for the rigs, we keep our EPS and target price, still based on 9x CY16 P/E (29% premium over the simple average P/E of Singapore OSV owners). Our target price could be diluted by 4.7%. Maintain Add, with contract wins as potential catalysts.

What Happened Swissco has announced the issuance of 43.95m (comprising two sets of 21.975m) redeemable exchangeable preference shares (REPS) to raise about US$42.847m. The REPS are raised via two of its investment entities – S&E Offshore Investments and S&E Offshore Investments 2. The investors are similar to those from Ezion’s REPS exercise in Jul 13, including UVM2 Venture Investments, Evia Growth Opportunities, Venstar Investments, 3VS1 Asia Growth Fund, Griffin Prive Fund, WPC Corporation, Goh Lam Wee and Chong Chin Cheong. The investors are able to convert 50% of the REPS after 12 months, with another 50% after 24 months from the issuance. The conversion price is at S$0.8732. 62.709m new shares could be issued upon full conversion, or 9.35% dilution. The proceeds will be used to fund the equity of two rigs.

What We Think This is just the beginning. We are not too concerned about the dilution given the exponential EPS growth expected from these rigs. We believe the first two rigs will be on a JV basis. Assuming a 70/30 debt/equity funding structure, each rig could cost US$70m. This could be matched by a charter contract that yields annual revenue of US$20-25m and profit of US$8-10m (100%-owned basis). We assume that Swissco will invest four rigs by end-14 via three JVs and one fully-owned rig. Our target is achievable given the hint of four subsidiaries to be formed. With net gearing less than 0.5x currently, we see room to gear up for the subsequent rigs. What You Should Do Accumulate. Capital raising and contract wins are two key share price drivers.

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YANGZIJIANG and SWISSCO: What analysts now say

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