China Fibretech - multibagger?

yeng
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13 years 3 months ago #5005 by yeng

Replied by yeng on topic Re:China Fibretech - multibagger?

Broadly, I agree with yr take on the relative strength of the business of Taisan vi-a-vis Fibretech, Gaoxian, etc.

From a stock gain point of view, I differ a little.

I figure that China Fibretech could return 50% (ie touch 15 cts) by end march.

There is more upside potential as it has not galloped up yet and it has yet to show positve results - in a way the market is waiting to re-rate the stock at least up to its (end-Sep) Net Cash of 14.5 cents.

By end of 4Q, the cash prob would have gone up to 16 centzzz......

Taisan can also do 50% (ie 27 c)..... Gaoxian might be able to do abt 20% (ie reach 50 cts).

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erelation
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13 years 3 months ago - 13 years 3 months ago #5006 by erelation

Replied by erelation on topic Re:Re:China Fibretech - multibagger?

Hi Yeh, I can't agree more that China Fibertech look good at the short term basis. Basically we are paying 10cents to get 20cents worth of assets in which close to 15 cents are in CASH. How nice if i have lots of money to take the company private at this crazy price. Once the result are positive.... couple with dividend payout then it will shoot up very quickly.

Last edit: 13 years 3 months ago by erelation.

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greenrookie
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13 years 3 months ago #5007 by greenrookie

Replied by greenrookie on topic Re:China Fibretech - multibagger?

eralation,
I am just your opposite, haha, I have more on Gaoxian and China FibreT and less on Fuxing. In fact Fuxing is a also my short term punt. Was hoping the 3 aquisitions announced will push the price higher, yet it only went so far. Aquisitions will increase the admin expenses and might prove to be a drag in profits in the short term, non-discerning investors may thus be disappointed with the 1q results, hence if full year results is good, I might just take profits.
If Q4 results for ChinafibreTis significant stronger, then it will provide some kind of momentum for Q1 results. As mentioned in their prospectus, they have 1 year contracts with their cilents, hence the poor earnings for CHinafibreT lasts for 3 quarters from the time they issue a profit guidance of lower profits.
I believe ChinafibreT has high safety margin and good potential upside, if the counter don't run, at least I don't expect it to fall drastically. However, I don't expect it to reach the price of 14cents in the near term. (3-6 months)
14 cents will be a fair value then, from my observation of S-chips, not many people will actually buy it when they are rather fairly valued unless there is a super growth story (like gaoxian dual listing plans), they need a big gap in valuation and investors will close the gap. Once the gap is smaller, many actually take profits as they are concerned about long term prospect of s-chips, esp small s-chips like chinafibreT. However, if the earnings keep getting beter and their EPS and cash per share improve better, then maybe there will be a second round of rally.
Right now, i will take some money off the table if it hits 12cents or so, barring several folds of profits improvements in 4q.
Adjust expectation but sleep well with chinafibreT
(Gongxifacai)
just my 2 yuan worth, ha i copy from yeh, I am a s-chip fan too

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greenrookie
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13 years 3 months ago #5022 by greenrookie

Replied by greenrookie on topic Re:China Fibretech - multibagger?

China fibreT went up another 10% at 11 cents due to an article in lianhezaobao, talking about the potential gains from the textile industry due to the lunar new year pushing up demands. Chinafibret was 1 of the firms that appeared in the paper. Have a good hongbao

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erelation
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13 years 3 months ago - 13 years 3 months ago #5054 by erelation

Replied by erelation on topic Re:Re:China Fibretech - multibagger?

greenrookie,
Interesting to know that you are not so positive on the Fuxing acquisition in the short term. Yes, while there will definitely be additional expenses in term of admin etc... don't forget that it is buying an operational and already profit generating business. Hence, those expenses will be more than compensated by the revenue and will show Profit. The profit will only show improvement and also there is NOT new shares been issued for the acquisition. Can you share your thought why the additional expenses that will damp the profit in short term?
Gaoxian still dropping.... no idea where is the pit and when the fall will be reached. It have experience a super good run up from 18 cents level. The issue of 600 mil shares is significant as compare to its share base of 1.44 bil. I brought back some shares but after doing the calculation adding in the 600mil shares... it look expensive. If 4th Qtr result is not "super" enough to cover the dilution effect... then upside might be really limited.
600mil new shares against 1.44bil is an significant 42% of old share base.... very large dilution EPS. I am concerned that we might not yet see the bottom and question will be whether management can execute well to bring in the "high expected" performance. After analysising, i think too much risk as compare to other counters in the market.
Finally decided to cut my losses here and move fund into China Fibertech... while not superior in term of competitive advantage, it is undervalued. Good for short term punt....
Good Luck.... and hope it can have another good run for everyone of us before the CNY

Last edit: 13 years 3 months ago by erelation.

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erelation
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13 years 3 months ago - 13 years 3 months ago #5056 by erelation

Replied by erelation on topic Re:Re:Re:China Fibretech - multibagger?

Today market cap now is only about $44.7 mil. There is no long term debts. Net Cash after current liability is $64 mil.
Company now is worth less than its cash without taking into consideration of other long term asset like factory, machinery... Also note that cashflow is positive. Too bad the size of company is too small and outside the radar range of fund manager... can we muscle enough money from bro here @nextinsight to take the company private with $44.7 mil cash to take back $64mil?

Last edit: 13 years 3 months ago by erelation.

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