1. CHINA JISHAN . . . >38% expected capital gain. Reason: It is a good time to reveal its justified market share value by end of this first quarter 2011 due to severely undervalued position so far, in anticipating the announcement of its 2010 forth quarter/ended year financial report.
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2. SHANGHAI TURBO . . . >38% expected capital gain. Reason: Similar as above plus attractive dividend beyond market expectation.
Last edit: 13 years 4 months ago by niadmin. Reason: shorter title
2010 is a good year for the equity market due to the surge in liquidity due to the depreciation for money.
I remember 2011 may be a different year. Surge in interest rates due to the "Cheap Money" as well as increase in inflation rates will provide a different market scenario for equity investors.
Be bullish on the equity market but also reserve a cautious outlook once the scenario changes.
STOCK PICKS for 2011
1) Techcomp (Closed 40.5 cents on 24th Dec 2010)
I maintained my optimistic outlook for this Company. Earnings for 2010 should come in around USD 9.5m to USD 10m and it should improve further in 2011. I am forecasting a 25-30% growth in earnings for 2011, to around USD 12.4m. 2011 EPS will be 6.9 cents, which will translate into 5.9x FY2011 PE.
Healthcare and laboratory equipment are key industries highly promoted by the PRC government. I expect strong demand for Techcomp's testing equipment in the coming few years. Their manufacturing division should continue to grow strongly as they improved their efficiency and economics of scale.
I am expecting a 50-70% capital + dividend gain based on today's closing price of 40.5 cents.
2) Lippo-Mapletree REIT (Closed 53 cents on 24th Dec 2010)
I am not a big fan of REIT but I decided to diversify my portfolio due to the uncertainities in 2011. Lippo-Mappletree REIT aroused my interests due to its low gearing of 10+% as well as its exposure to Indonesia retail market. NAV stands at 78.5 cents, 48% higher than current market price.
Indonesia under its new President is showing signs of improving its economy back to the pre-Asian Financial Crisis. I am of the view that the improvements will continue into 2011 and it will raise their retail rental market and directly impact on Lippo-Mapletree REIT.
Lippo-Mapletree has a first right refusal with its sponsor to take over 25 retail malls in suburban Indonesia. I would presume that the Company will increase its gearing to take over the 25 malls in a non-organice growth environment in 2011.
Bloomberg shows indicated gross yield of 8.23% in 2011. I believe it is too high. I estimated a 7-7.25% dividend yield in 2011.
In total, I am expecting a 25-30% capital + dividend gain based on today's closing price of 53 cents.
1) 2011 is going to see even higher food prices. Those sgx counters associated with palm oil, food products have risen except for HLH. This is also a big turnaround play. Previously its core business was in property development, it has since reaped its first harvest in corn plantation in Cambodia. CBOT corn price has smashed through $600. By 1D2011, HLH will have 10000 ha of land and 6 corn plantation in cambodia. At 0.03c. the counter could easily make a 66% return to $0.05 on a conservative view.
2) Foreland has been mentioned lately by some research fellows but interest in the company has died down. This is a 2 decade old company with strong business sense and established approach. ASP has recovered from the dark days and utilisation rate surpassing 90% in 4Q10 and 1Q11. Investor will look to gain by buying ahead of its Jan financial result. Technically, its 100 and 200 MA have jus make a golden crossat current levels. A 66% gain to 15c by 1Q11 is possible.
1) Wee Hur.
1 bonus and 1 warrant shares for every 1 shares held. Industrial building development means they are isolated from residential property cooling measures. At current price of around 50 cents, the bonus and warrant shares will most likely results in profit if you can hold until ex-bonus.
Eg: If you buy 2 lots at 50 cents which will cost you $1000. But you will get 1 free bonus and 1 free warrant. I expect the ex-bonus price to be 30 cents but slowly rises back to 40 cents range when results is annouced in Q1/2011. You have a potential of a 50-80% gain.
24/12/2010: 49 cents: End of Q1/2011: 40 cents.
2) Hock Lian Seng
Annouced that it will venture into property development. Will most likely be conducting fund raising exercise to raise fund for property development. Most likely a warrant issue. Potential of 40-50% gain.
24/12/2010: 29 cents. End of Q1/2011: 40 cents.
China Taisan(Target Price 25cents, ~22% upside from current price of 20.5cents):
* It's a laggard and may soon play catch-up with China Gaoxian
* Fundamentally good: good sales, net profit, profit margin, going to add production capacity; earning has recovered since Q4 2009 & consistently shows good result; constant innovation(R&D) to deliver new products with high margin.
In my opinion, this stock is only second to China Gaoxian (on the same industry), but considering Gaoxian has had a good run, it's about time for Taisan to follow.
Last edit: 13 years 3 months ago by springpig. Reason: adding some info
GMG Global – Expected 25% gain or $0.40 TP. I think the situation in Ivory Coast will revert to normal and sentiment on the stock will improve. Some have been scared out when they heard that the operations were affected in the African state. But fundamentals have been improving for natural rubber as reflected in the spot prices. This will be seen when GMG Global reports its full-year results end of February. Expect volatility in trading though, due to its huge float.
Auric Pacific – Expected 30% gain or $0.90 TP. Auric is trying to move into the real estate business through setting up of a trust fund, something that it has planned for some time. I think Auric Pacific is worth a punt because it has been trading at a steep discount to book value, which will hopefully not be the case, since the company has turned around recording a profit for the recent financial quarter.
