'Cracker' @ Valuebuddies.com makes good sense but then again we all don't know everything:
I feel the extension simply leaves us none the wiser. 2 important issues that this binary event was meant to reveal are still not resolved as a result of the extension.
1. Does the company really have the cash and cash-flow?
2. Does the company have any genuine intention to IPO? (Presumably IF the Newman9 allegations are valid, it wouldn't dare to given the criminal liability? Then again you never know - history has shown us s-chips like China Gaoxian successfully achieving a dual listing in South Korea but then not long after the dual listing it was suspended and proven to be a fraud. So even a successful IPO is not a full-proof thing.)
Because of the extension, there is still no clear answer to these 2 questions.
Company could have told bondholders 'give us more time, we are still preparing to IPO, if you redeem your shares now you will lose out.' Come 25th July, it is perfectly possible that they could tow the same line and get it further extended. Of course if they keep doing that there will come a time where patience and limits are truly tested, and push comes to shove, and then perhaps only then will we truly know.
I think the best scenario for shareholders would be if come July 25th, company chooses to pay back bondholders for most of the bonds, and only allows them to convert a small%. This retains some institutional ownership, reduces dilution, but most importantly, proves that they have the cash to pay back. Cash doesn't lie - if they can pay back that few hundred million, their business is probably real. But until and unless that happens, we cannot know for sure.
Personally I've recently been to Sichuan, Zhejiang, Fujian and Shanghai and couldn't find 鲜绿园 being sold in any of the supermarkets or small convenience stores. I had better luck in Shenzhen, where I found it in quite a few major supermarkets and many 7 Eleven stores. But then again, Shenzhen is supposed to be their home-ground so you would expect that. I would have thought that for a juice brand supposedly achieving their sales volume, their products would have been more widely found outside of Shenzhen. Instead, I found it much easier to find their major competitor of similar reported sales volume - 纯果乐 - which I believe is a collaboration between Tingyi and Pepsi Cola. It's everywhere.
Anyway, what do I know? Just sharing my thoughts on the company and experience in China. Make of it what you will. Personally I feel the risk is too high and that there is too much uncertainty. But to all who decide to take the risk, good luck to you.
Still your mind n let belief into your heart. Some enterprising investor (Leeta) has shared the link to a new corporate video on Sino Grandness. Mind-blowing.
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