Referring to your question on the general thread “2nd liner prop counters”, I have not written much on CES recently as a few other forumers have generously contributed useful and interesting info and views, and I have nothing much else to add. But since you asked, here’s my take:
1. 2014 results were better than my estimates, but I was not surprised as I was expecting to err on the side of caution. I had previously written that I hoped for a 6 cent dividend, and I was happy that it turned out that figure.
2. I am not certain if the Victoria Street site will be sold, but I do not expect a big profit figure from that sale – certainly not a big surprise.
3. I am happy that a resolution on TM is more and more likely. However, I am sure those who follow forums elsewhere would have read that perhaps demolition works have not commenced. I am also a tad wary about the neighbour’s tireless efforts in putting a pause, if not a stop, on the project, and so I am still prudently leaving TM out of the equation.
4. My estimates for Junction 9 and 9 Residences is total gross profit of $97m, assuming 100% sold. However, I do not know how much of this has already been booked, nor if they would be able to TOP by end-2015, as I have not gone to the site to check out the pace of construction.
5. I have no estimates for Fulcrum now as I do not know how CES intend to price the unsold units. I am hoping they reduce price to about $1,500-1,700psf to go for quick sales. But an ASP of about $1,600psf could yield it perhaps $30m gross profit.
6. My estimates for Fernvale sites are: ASP of $980psf vs total cost of about $845 psf, yielding about $90m gross profit for CES’ 60% stake.
I continue to like CES. Apart from the good fundies shown above, I like the major shareholders for (a) buying back the undervalued shares in big, meaningful quantities, and (b) sharing the company’s profits with minority shareholders through generous dividends (leading to more loyal long-term shareholders).
However, since the stock price has risen substantially, I have taken some profit for a certain % of my shares, which I have then re-invested in other potentially interesting prop or prop-related counters, whose undervaluation vs their RNAV continue to provide safety cushions in a difficult market.