Chip Eng Seng

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25 Feb 2015 14:32 - 25 Feb 2015 14:35 #21782 by gmj
Replied by gmj on topic Chip Eng Seng
ChipEngSeng has again delivered stellar results.All the hard work has paid off.This is the beginning of a steady stream of income from the strong foundation laid down by the capable and responsible management.
6c dividend and strong NAV $1.17 speaks for itself.What more can we ask for a 97 ct counter.
Kudos to all following the counter and reaping the rewards.
Sumer,thanks for all your valuable input.
Last edit: 25 Feb 2015 14:35 by gmj.

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25 Feb 2015 20:55 #21785 by mechu
Replied by mechu on topic Chip Eng Seng
Thought the 37.9m fair value gain was quite material (ard 6 cents per share). From accompanying notes to ytd’s announcement, sounds like the fair value gain was associated with investment properties CES centre and 420 St Kilda. Is this the cost of alteration works for both properties that CES has capitalized in Q4? If that’s the case, refurbishment for San Centre is indeed quite substantial – assuming ~30m alteration cost, cost psf would go up by 220 thereabouts making total cost 1077 psf (220 + 857). From posted ads, looks like they are looking to rent the space at 6.5 psf so rental yield of 6.7% if they achieve 6 psf average. Not too bad and I don't know if the same can be achieved if they went with a hotel development instead for the site.

Also, seems like revenue/profit for Junction Nine and Nine Residences are recognized based on % completion. Anyone knows the rough schedule of revenue recognition for this method? Just want to have a feel of what has already been booked in the 2014 results and what will be booked in 2015/16 though it seems like TOP by end of the year is possible (looks like the structure is already at 14th storey now).

My 2 cents on the limited movement today. I believe the bumper profit from Alexandra has been partly priced in but I am guessing there's quite a bit of disappointment with the special dividend being only 2c more despite the record 44c profit. Although I do feel that CES being prudent is a positive for longer term investors. With recent GLS bids already starting to show weakness, there should be opportunities later on to pick up land parcels at lower prices.

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26 Feb 2015 03:08 #21789 by Baggerhopeful
Replied by Baggerhopeful on topic Chip Eng Seng
Some observations from the results briefing on SGX.

Project completions brought forward to FY2015 includes:
Fulcrum - currently 13% sold and about to relaunch in 2H15. TOP in 4Q15 (from 2016) could see lump earnings should the project be well-received

Junction Nine & Nine Residence - currently 99% and 84% sold, a TOP in 4Q15 (from 2016) will see the remaining earnings being recognised, with the bulk of it upon completion

Key catalyst would be the completion of Alexander Hotel in FY15 (~$130m revaluation surplus, $820k/room), with a probable TOP in 1Q15 as the project is slated to be completed by the contractor Keong Hong by end-March, contrary to the Mid-15 timeline stated by the company.

With the impending launch of CES Fenvale project (60% stake with 1m gfa) in 2015, good ASP and sales take up will lead to the market reacting positively to the stock leading to another year of outperformance.

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26 Feb 2015 12:46 #21790 by potatolover
Replied by potatolover on topic Chip Eng Seng
Current share price = 98 cents.
NAV = $1.17
Discount to NAV = 16%.

- With the impending TOP of Alex Park hotel, NAV would be revised up by ~30 cents to $1.47 in 3 months times.
- Tender for Victoria land will close by end of March. Assume EPS gain ~ 6 cents.


- Not forgetting that recurring income of $14mil (per annum) will kick in.
- Applying discount factor of 20% to NAV of $1.53 cents, we should get ~$1.22

Is this reasonable ?

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26 Feb 2015 13:32 - 26 Feb 2015 13:33 #21791 by Wiki
Replied by Wiki on topic Chip Eng Seng
Here is the website for CES' Doncaster project in Melbourne which was launched last month.

Project looks pleasant, GDV is small though and won't be that major a contributor to earnings.

williamsonsestate.com.au/
Attachments:
Last edit: 26 Feb 2015 13:33 by Wiki. Reason: -

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26 Feb 2015 21:11 - 27 Feb 2015 02:14 #21798 by potatolover
Replied by potatolover on topic Chip Eng Seng
FY2015 might be another record breaking year again in terms of NAV creation for shareholders.

The following projects will obtain TOP in 2015 (as guided by company)

1. Alex Hotel (mid 2015) - NAV gain ~ 30 cents
2. Junction 9 and 9 residence (remaining EPS - 8 cents)
3. Fulcrum (assumed EPS = 0)
4. Divestment of Victoria Land (EPS - 5 cents)
5. construction income (EPS - 4 cents)
6. Other recurring income from investment properties (EPS - 2 cents)


Total EPS Gain = 19 cents
Total NAV Gain = 19 + 30 = 49 cents.

NAV by end of FY2015 = $1.66
20% discount to NAV = $1.33.

infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...c0d38dda37
Last edit: 27 Feb 2015 02:14 by potatolover.

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