Thanks to these loss-making subsidiaries, share price has declined more than 60% since 2011. The discontinuation of the subsidiaries has stemmed losses greatly and results in 1Q2015 shows a positive profit. Could there be turnaround which can lift share price higher? No one can say this for sure.

AviTechChart1.15


Let's use 2010 and 2015 results for comparison since in both years, the loss-making subsidiaries are non-existent. A back-of-the envelope calculation shows PER of 2010 is about 15.6X while forward PER of 2015 appears to be about 9.1X (I annualized 1Q15 earnings per share of S$0.002 here as an approximation). Assuming all else remains the same, this could be another indication that share price decline has been exaggerated and the market probably has not factored in the positive effects from the disposal.

If the valuation in 2010 is any guide, the market price should be around S$0.12! Of course, I’m not saying these assumptions are reasonable but at least it gives me some level of comfort here knowing that I'm not buying at a ridiculously high price.

Because the earnings have been quite unstable, probably the balance sheet can give better insights about its intrinsic value. Taking a haircut of 50% to PPE (NB: this part of the balance sheet is throwing in some S$500K-S$700K rental income annually), 25% to inventory and 10% to receivables, we get a liquidation value of S$0.094 per share as compared to the price of S$0.074. (Potential Bonus 1: I did not include the proceeds that the company may receive from the disposal of subsidiary in this valuation).

CONCLUSION

A high price can turn stocks of good quality businesses into a speculative purchase and likewise, a low price can turn a speculative stock into an attractive investment. My opinion is that Avi-Tech belongs to the latter category. 


Considering the pros and cons, I think the low price coupled with the existence of potential catalysts make the purchase of Avi-tech too attractive to be denied by the security analyst. However, the risks mentioned above also means that the position in the portfolio should be kept relatively small - just in case the business does not perform well again. (Potential Bonus 2: we have already ensured there's some margin of safety to absorb unfavourable future developments but what if future acquisitions are so successful that future earnings improve dramatically? This is definitely not accounted for yet).

SOME FINAL THOUGHTS

Due to its classification in my portfolio & unless there’s any clear-cut change in circumstances, my guess is that I will take most of my profits (if any) within the next 12 months. I mentioned that my average price including costs since November ‘14 is S$0.0699.

The price now at S$0.078 would mean that my current returns is about 12% in slightly less than 2 months. Obviously this is not the best business in the best industry and I have the urge to take my profits initially when it touched S$0.08.

After some deliberation, I figured that my estimate of S$0.094 is really a minimum valuation which is so conservative to the extent that it is a reasonably dependable guide. Moreover, one of the directors bought back shares a couple of days back at about S$0.078. Maybe somewhere around S$0.09 I can consider trimming my stake. I would be more than happy to get some opinions about this.

PS: I’m surprised that I took about an hour of analysis before deciding to purchase Avi-Tech but it took me more than 3-4 hours to write about it in this blog!
 

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  • http://www.nextinsight.biz/images/stories/HongKongmisc/400adminblg.jpg FIBRECHEM'S James Zhang still with the company?

    Comments  

    0 #2 James Chong 2015-01-21 14:20
    Quoting Kerrick:
    There are so many such companies around. Why don't you pick for examples, eucon which is just 1+c?


    Did a quick look and personally feel Eucon is very different from Avi-Tech -

    1. It is clear that based on the balance sheets, Avi-Tech is in a better financial condition than Eucon. Eucon has a poorer working capital position and much of its PPE is tied up to plant & machinery which may or may not be worth as much as stated. This is compared to Avi-tech where the better portion is in building and leasehold improvements that have been throwing in rental income, potentially indicating some value there.

    2. One key investment thesis for Avi-tech is the discontinuation of its major loss-making subsidiaries. The disposal of the laser drilling segment for Eucon doesn't seem to help much overall as other segments have shown a relatively huge loss over the previous years. This is different from Avi-Tech in which the discontinued subsidiaries has contributed a majority of the losses in the previous years. The remaining segments at Avi-Tech did show small losses previously but has turned in positive results in the latest quarterly report.

    Of course, Eucon may turn out to be a better investment in the end but based on the above analysis, I believe Avi-tech is a much safer bet.

    My apologies for not replying soon enough as I don't really check comments here on a frequent basis. You may want to comment directly in my blog at http://secretinvestors.blogspot.sg/
    Quote
    0 #1 Kerrick 2015-01-14 22:15
    There are so many such companies around. Why don't you pick for examples, eucon which is just 1+c?
    Quote

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