Excerpts from analysts' report
▊ Tianjin Pharmaceutical Group (TPG), the major shareholder of Tianjin Zhongxin, revealed that it intends to acquire up to 1% of the company’s total issued shares in Singapore over the next six months.
On 2 Dec, Tianjin Zhongxin’s major shareholder, TPG, purchased 4.6m S-shares via open market transactions, increasing its stake in Tianjin Zhongxin from 44.043% to 44.665%. Shortly after, TPG revealed its intention to acquire up to 1% (translates to 7.4m shares, including the recently-acquired 4.6m shares) of Tianjin Zhongxin’s S-shares over the next six months.
What We Think
We believe that:
1) TPG intends to buff up its shareholding in Tianjin Zhongxin to counter the potential dilution effects from the company’s proposed new placement on the A-share market and to take advantage of the huge price gap between the company’s A- and S-shares.
2) This is only the start of TPG increasing its stake in Tianjin Zhongxin. The proposed 90m share placement on the A-share market would dilute TPG’s stake in Tianjin Zhongxin from 44.04% to 39.26%. If TPG wants to maintain its current shareholding level, it needs to acquire 5% of Tianjin Zhongxin’s total issued capital, i.e. c.40m shares, from the Singapore market over the next 2-3 years.
3) The potential share purchase would extend to common S-shareholders, as it is unlikely that Tianjin Zhongxin’s three major S-shareholders, which collectively own c.29.6m shares, would all relinquish their positions.
Apart from the share purchase, we expect Tianjin Zhongxin to benefit from the National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) decision to lift the price cap on low-cost drugs. Under a blue-sky scenario, the company’s net profit could double in the next 2-3 years, driven by the sales and margin expansion of Su Xiao Jiu Xin Pills after the price ceiling is lifted.
What You Should Do
Add. The S-shares trade at 13.8x CY15 P/E versus its peer average of 22.2x.
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