Excerpts from Macquarie report dated Mon, 28 June…
Macquarie Equities Research says: “Record-breaking container volumes in May”
Global Container Index reaches new high
Macquarie’s Global Container Index, constructed from the aggregation of volumes from almost 200 container ports in 58 countries, suggests that global container volumes reached a record high in May 2010, exceeding the previous peak seen in July 2008 by around 1%. In terms of the YoY growth rate, we estimate that global throughput increased by 19% in April and 18% in May, illustrating that the growth rates seen in 1Q10 have yet to slow.
2Q10 could prove a record quarter…
In the April edition of Counting Containers we challenged the perception that restocking benefits had driven container volumes to unsustainable levels during 1Q10, and estimated that global throughput during 2Q10 could increase by around 9% compared with the previous quarter. During April/May this estimate proved accurate, with the average monthly volume +9.4% vs. that seen during 1Q10. If this trend continues into June, we estimate Global throughput growth of +17% YoY for 2Q10, which would be a record high for an individual quarter. 
…while 3Q10 is likely to scale even greater heights
Based on typical seasonal trends, in which 3Q volumes typically exceed those seen in the previous quarter by around 4%, it is likely that 3Q10 will prove to be a record quarter by some distance, with the possibility that our Global Container Index could hit 200 during this period, equal to a YoY increase of 14-15%.
Two key reasons suggest to us that volumes will remain strong during this period:
(i) our analysis of inventories in Europe and the US suggests the main benefit from re-stocking may be still to come; and
(ii) in importing regions such as the US, the ratio of containerised imports-to-end demand remains low for both consumer and industrial goods.
