‘The bonanza of a lifetime’: Amid an existential crisis could coal repeat its stunning form in 2022?
“Coal prices have been stubbornly high, and they may stay so in the coming years due to the lack of investment in new capacity for environmental reasons.
“A similar trend may happen in Oil, as most majors are wary to commit the capital required to develop new fields given declining demand and decarbonisation trends.
“In both Coal and Oil, private equity firms are betting that the energy transition will take longer than expected and that demand will outpace a shrinking supply. The ensuing combination of high commodity prices and low acquisition costs for unwelcome assets may provide these firms the bonanza of a lifetime.”
SAMUDERA SHIPPING:
There is a big player selling Samudera. Everytime it hits around 56, the player will come in to block and try to push the share price down. He seems kinda convinced that Samudera is overvalued. He has been doing this a few times and for a few months already.
Looking at the shareholdings, I really doubt he has so many shares to sell for personally I have around 70 lots being borrowed.
My guess for samudera is that its PE is around 2, nta as for 2021 should be above 75 cents and dividend for 2021 should be around 5 to 8 cents...so I don't see any overvaluation.
Some container shippers are reporting very good January 2022 revenue with Evergreen's Jan 2022 EPS of NT$6 compared to 1st Quarter EPS of NT$7.
As for its parent company Samudera Indonesia, its share price was up by more than 20% in the past month. Bulk of its profit will come from Samudera Shipping.
I keep an open mind that I might be wrong and the seller is right. In investing, sometimes you need conviction in what you are doing.
Golden Energy didn't declare a dividend, then got sold down. But with coal prices running up, GEAR has re-rated. Another catalyst has been the exciting massive purchase by its subsidiary Stanmore of BHP Mitsui coking coal mine in Australia.
"When Stanmore struck the deal to buy BHP Mitsui Coal assets in November, coal prices were around US$130 a tonne. Now they are hovering at around US$400/t."
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