Questions for Isaac

Questions for Isaac what do you think of the recent ECB plan to purchase Gov bonds.

ECB recent action n FED's QE3 (likely) are no panacea for a world economy mired in a debt crisis of this magnitude. Only correct economic policies and strict austerity program could save the day.
There shall be stagnation in the world economy and financial market for a fairly long time. At the moment, I have stayed invested in defensive , dividend yielding stocks like S Post, Suntec,etc and corporate bonds like Swiber, Shui On, Ezra ,etc They yield an average 6.5%, beating inflation about 5% and SGS 10 year bond 1.35%.
 

DJ MARKET TALK: Singapore''s STI +1.4%; DBSV Tips Test Of 3200 In 4Q

"Ben Bernanke's bazooka is better than thought," DBS Vickers says in a note, adding the Fed's aggressive easing steps exceeded investors' expectations.

"Risk-on trades and cyclical stocks benefit." It expects the STI to gradually work toward 3200 in 4Q, with 3050 and 3075 the two immediate levels to watch. It expects the STI may underperform regional peers as it rode the resilience and yield theme recently; "even so, opportunities can be found among the cyclical stocks."

It expects sustained interest among commodity and O&M names it recently tipped, such as Ausgroup ( 5GJ.SG ), Nam Cheong ( N4E.SG ), Kreuz ( 5RK.SG ), STX OSV ( MS7.SG ) and Noble ( N21.SG ).

It also tips interest in fixed-asset-investment play Pan-United ( P52.SG ) and Midas ( 5EN.SG ) for China railway construction.

Hi Isaac, Would like to find out whether you base your investment decision and strategy solely on fundamental analysis? Do you look at technical analysis as well? From the technical perspective,DOW is currently in the mist of forming MAJOR top which likely lead to the BIG CRASH once the US election is over and the FED will run out of bullet to save their economy. All politician will do all sort of things to keep the feel good mood before their election so that they can be re-elected. The same things goes for Germany which will be having their election soon as well. The problem is only pull from this generation/government to the next government. Do you see the same thing as well? The next big crash is on the horizon? The prediction is once all these is done... the

Hello Isaac,

Its been a while since your last post, like to find out how you have allocated your portfolio. Are you still in corporate bonds, equity/Reits or in cash ? What is your outlook for the SG stock mkt?

Hope to hear frm you, thanks.

Dear tsksg,

STI was actually range-bound (2600-3200) in the last 3.5 years, rebounded sharply to 2681 on 3/8/09 from its bottom on 9/3/09 (STI 1457).

I was very fortunate to have stayed fully invested since 4/6/12 (STI 2698), picking 6 winners, namely Suntec, MLT, A Reit, StarHub, S.Post,SPH and making hefty capital gains and dividends.

They offer an average yield 6% p.a.(at time of purchase) > 400 b.p. above SGS 10 year bond. I have bought >$4m of them and have reaped enormous capital gains since.

My current Portfolio:- Property 50%, Shares 40%, Bonds n Cash 10%.

The following statistics speak volumes about the performance of these 6 stocks relative to Cosco, Cap Land, UOB, they have out-performed STI by a wide margin
in the past 3.5 months.

Date 2/1/13 --> 11/4/13

STI 3202 --> 3308 (3.3%)

A Reit 2.40 --> 2.70 (12.5%)

Suntec 1.695 --> 1.895 (11.8%)

SPost 1.145 --> 1.26 (10% )

MLT 1.15 --> 1.31 (13.9%)

StarHub 3.85 --> 4.43 (15%)

SPH 4.05 --> 4.65 (14.8%)



Cap Land 3.76 --> 3.54 (-6%)

Cosco 0.945 --> 0.895(-5.3%)

UOB 19.92 --> 20.68(3.8%)


Please note that Gold Price < $1600, and U.S 10 year Bond Yield is 1.8% and U.S Unemployment >7.6%.

With Japan now joining U.S. in monetary loosening, ie QE, I expect the bull run to continue in the next 6 months. STI could hit 3600 before end of this year.

You may wish to read my previous article
ISAAC CHIN: "2011 was my most difficult year in investing"

www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-arch...y-happenings-in-2011