sino grandness - undervalued stock

1. Re the Bloomberg story > Garden Fresh will be debt-free when bondholders swap their lending to shares. The RMB750m (S$150m) that Garden Fresh expects to raise in the IPO is substantial as the smaller aggregate RMB370m borrowed from bondholders has enabled Garden Fresh to expand quite vigorously.

Garden Fresh may build more beverage factories to reduce distribution cost and reduce reliance on contract manufacturers.

2. Re announcement last night on share split. It is good that Sino is now proposing to subdivide its shares. Shareholders will have twice as many shares after the splitting. This is better than the one-for-two bonus issue proposed in Feb.

What is your guess regarding the stock price movement tomorrow and through next week as a result of the 1-for-2 stock split announcement?

infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Sino_Grandness_...cement&FileID=249514

My guess is... a rise of ~ 10%, which will take the stock from $1.53 (last Friday close) to around $1.70.

That's about fair value currently, imho. There are 2014 stock prices estimated at $1.89 (Maybank) and ranging from $2.10 to $2.41 to even $3 by various investors based on certain assumptions about the IPO financials of Garden Fresh in 2H next year.

It's still a while from now, and there are milestones that investors need to see achieved such as:


a. 2Q, 3Q, 4Q2013 performance.

b. Quarterly results in 1Q, 2Q 2014.

c. Performance of canned fruits division + beverage division.

As each of these quarterly results and the performance of the biz segments unfold, the market will re-calibrate (upwards or downwards) its valuation of Sino Grandness stock. Positive and/or negative surprises cannot be ruled out.

For now, I think $1.70 is a very fair near-term target.

No 10% jump! Only 5% downturn!

Now : $1.45. Is a launch pad to $1.70 which will bring 17% gain.

Will it happen? Sino Grandness' 2Q results is key.

Isn't it an ominous sign when the stock price has gone south ever since the company announced the stock split? Issued positive news but the stock price has fallen and fallen to $1.425. Maybe the 2Q results will be below expectations. Just a guess.

Big drop this morning.. what happened?? Bad news??

kye_lin wrote: Big drop this morning.. what happened?? Bad news??

just hearsay: It's becos of some jokers who bought the stock last week after the announcement of a stock split... They had to contra / dump in the past few days because the market was weak and the stock price didn't rally as expected. Now we see once again the danger of short-termism. The forced selling could be over, as the stock has now bounced back up to $1.40.
Results of 2Q will be out next Wednesday. Pray hard.