New, More Analyst Coverage for This Company as Profit Boom Seen Ahead

THE CONTEXT

• With 1Q2025 results season around the corner, Geo Energy Resources has attracted coverage from a third sell-side broker, Lim & Tan Securities.

The stock is +24% year-to-date on expectations of a good year.

• Geo Energy, in its FY2024 results statement, had guided that its 2025 production volume could increase 33-46% from 2024 coal sales.

That's because of the prep work it had carried out (removing the overburden) in 2024 which paves the way for coal to be extracted from its mines.

• Analysts are throwing out big 2025 forecasts for Geo Energy and target prices (which are based on longer-term DCF models):

Broker	2025 net profit forecast for Geo	Target price SGD
Phillip Securities	US$46.2 m	0.47
Lim & Tan Research	US$63.0 m	0.60
KGI	US$89.7 m	0.64

• The game-changer? Geo Energy's 92-km hauling road and a jetty in South Sumatra, which are being built to transport coal from not just Geo Energy's mine (TRA) but also several third-party mines in the region.

That will unlock the potential of the TRA mine (now producing only small volumes), as well as generate a tonne of cash from tolls charged to the third-party mines.

• Read more below ....

Excerpts from Lim & Tan Research report
Analysts: Nicholas Yon & Chan En Jie

Geo Energy Resources Ltd
COAL IS THE NEW GOLD

We initiate a BUY recommendation on Geo Energy Resources (Geo) with a TP of S$0.60, based on DCF (WACC: 12.5%).

Geo is a coal mining company that will benefit from an upcoming state-of-the-art infrastructure development, where we forecast EBITDA levels to triple from US$60mln in FY24 to US$168mln in FY26F upon completion.

GEO ENERGY
Share price: 36 c	Target: 60 c

Geo will be able to transport larger volumes of coal more efficiently, save on current tolling costs, and generate additional revenue by charging third-party users.

With emerging countries like China and Indonesia still relying on coal for power generation, coupled with President Trump’s push for increased coal consumption, we believe Geo will remain a beneficiary of sustained coal demand.

Geo trades at just 5.9x forward P/E with a FY25F/FY26F dividend yield of 5.1%/7.4% respectively, rendering the company an attractive stock to dive into at current levels.

INSIDER PURCHASES

Date	Name	Position	No. of Shares Bought	Share Price (S$)	Total Holdings
19-Oct-23	Adam Tan	CFO	80,000	0.30	80,000
	Philip Hendry	COO	580,000	0.30	580,000
	Lu King Seng	Business Dev’t Director	100,000	0.305	1,000,000
28-Feb-24	Lu King Seng		80,000	0.325	1,080,000
28-Mar-24	Resource Invest AG	Key Shareholder	14,883,333	0.45	81,979,333
24-May-24	David Yan	Independent Director	120,000	0.31	120,000
10-Sept-24	Adam Tan		50,000	0.24	130,000
	Philip Hendry		500,000	0.24	1,080,000
	Lu King Seng		50,000	0.24	1,130,000
27-Dec-24	Resource Invest AG		13,395,000	0.50	95,474,333
11-Apr-25	David Yan		70,000	0.29	190,000
Source: Lim & Tan Research

Addition of coal reserves will add to bottom line. In 2024, Geo incurred costs removing overburden and surface debris across its operating mines
to improve future coal access and achieve higher production volumes in the coming years.

2025 is expected to be a better year with the company targeting total coal sales of 10.5-11.5 million tonnes, an increase of 33%-46% yoy.

In addition, its newly acquired TRA coal mine has started to see meaningful contributions of 1.1mln tonnes in FY24.

Geo has acquired an additional 15% of TRA at a 12.5% discount in Mar’25, bringing total effective interest to 75.1%.

This will streamline ownership and enhance control over its TRA mining operations.

Production volumes are expected to ramp up steadily over the next few years to 25mln tonnes by FY29, contributing significantly to the bottom line.

REVENUE selling price4.25

Clearing bottleneck with strategic infrastructure investment.

Geo’s recent US$150mln investment into a new 92 km hauling road and a jetty will pay off in 2 folds once completed in 1H26.

Sustained China demand

"Despite China’s increasing commitment to tap into renewable energy, the demand for economic growth far exceeds the power output of existing clean energy sources.

As a result, China continues to remain reliant on coal, particularly imports from Indonesia, due to the lower quality of its domestic coal, which results in higher ash and sulfur content comparatively."
-- Lim & Tan Research

Firstly, the transportation from Geo’s mines to the port will utilize trucks that can carry three to four
times their current load and offer faster and safer navigation compared to the existing route.

Secondly, Geo has the opportunity to establish a new recurring revenue stream by leasing its newly built infrastructure to other miners in the region.

This will clear Geo’s bottleneck of an inefficient transportation system, which will feed into Geo’s earnings once
infrastructure is completed.

With President Trump advocating for greater domestic coal usage as a strategy to counter China’s economic advantage, we anticipate that both the demand and price for quality coal will remain robust.

Given that Geo’s largest customer base is in China, this bodes well for Geo.

Attractive valuations with growth upside

NicholasYon 4.25 Nicholas Yon, analystGeo trades at 5.9x FY25F P/E, 0.8x P/B and is backed by a dividend yield of 5.1%.

Our FY25F net profit estimate of US$63.0 mln (+68% yoy) results from Geo’s ability to improve production efficiency after incurring costs to strip out unwanted surface debris the previous year.

Our estimates stem from the increased volume reported in 4Q24, while taking a 5% discount to FY24 coal prices, which we think is reasonable.

Lastly, we think share price is supported by share buybacks and an increase in key shareholders’ purchases in recent months.

New, More Analyst Coverage for This Company as Profit Boom Seen Ahead

You may also be interested in: