PS Tan (photo), aka lotustpsll, has been a shareholder of Best World International since 2015. He contributed this article to NextInsight. He worked with HSBC Group for over 30 years. Over the last 15 years of his career he headed senior positions in the Risk Division of the Bank. His last post was Head of Risk Strategy. He was responsible for setting up two departments – Corporate Risk Identification and Financial Analysis – within Corporate Risk Division and managing them.
BWI released its annual results on 26 Feb. Last Q4 was a record quarter in many respects.
The magnitude of Q4 numbers is immense in relation to the full-year results. The incredibly strong Q4 should provide a foundation for a stronger performance this year. |
Country performance, based on revenue generated, was impressive (see table):
Top markets |
Q4 |
2018 |
China |
S$144.8m |
+31 % |
Taiwan |
S$85.9m |
+4.4% |
Indonesia |
S$15.7m |
+200% |
China’s new franchise model is working well and we may expect a multi-year growth profile given the scale of this enormous market.
Initial signs are very encouraging and that the Management’s strategies and plans are being successfully executed. Shareholders believe BWI can replicate its Taiwan success story and to achieve more in China.
China will be the key market to watch this year.
Stability in Taiwan’s market in 2018 is welcome news for shareholders as it enters into a more matured phase. No doubt, Taiwan will continue to be an important market. Hopefully, we see a high single-digit growth rate for FY19.
Management and shareholders are equally excited over the potential growth prospects of Indonesia, 4th most populous nation. The group is keen to develop and to expand on this market.
In a nutshell, we are witnessing a growing and wider acceptance of BWI’s products, notably DR's Secret. This augurs well for the Group. Why BWL is such an attractive investment for many shareholders? This is a summary of the varied factors -- based on facts.
- BWI is a 28 year old home-grown business (a rare breed), not an overnight MLM.
- Extensive experience of key directors (who are Founders of BWI) in this industry.
- Strong track record of business success through astute business planning and execution, for e.g. Taiwan, China and Indonesia.
- Secular uptrend of demand for premium “skincare” products.
- An “asset light” business model that can be replicated from country to country.
- Taiwan’s success story – a “Best in Class” case study for corporate strategy, planning and execution.
- Similar cultural profiles of both China and Taiwan consumers allow BWI to use the Taiwan’s success story to map out its business plans and strategies in China.
- Strong revenue growth in China and Indonesia. Management will be keen to raise its market share.
- Strong EBITDA margins exceeding 30% achieved for the past 7 QTRs. Indicative of a highly profitable business model. Not many public-listed companies can achieve such margins.
- Strong financial position supported by current huge cash reserves of s$205 million. Liquidity is stable and strong. No inherent cash flow or balance sheet risk.
- For FY18, BWI generated free cash flow of s$148 million. This represents a solid FCF yield of 11.5%. A strong cash-generative business that will strengthen its capital structure and instil financial flexibility to fund business expansions and investments. Also, provides options to reward shareholders and raise shareholder value.
- BWI has won numerous awards over the years. Last November, BWI was recognised by Forbes Asia “200 Best Under a Million”. This annual award honours high-performing Asia-Pacific listed companies, selected from a pool of 24,000 companies with an annual revenue between $5 million and $1 billion. Only 3 Singapore companies made it to the list.
- From FY15 to FY17, BWI grew its EBITDA from s$19.8 million to s$72.5 million. This golden period was driven notably by Taiwan’s business growth. A stunning CAGR of 54%. Can BWI repeat this sizzling run from FY18 to FY21? Management is confident of FY19 outlook. This is looking positive.
- BWI has appointed Chester Fong as an Independent Director, a significant addition to further the success of the company’s China/HK strategy. This is a good and strategic appointment which Business Times overlooked. Instead, BT merely cited Chester as a replacement to an ID who had resigned, casting the resignation in a negative light along with the rest of the article.
To do justice to Chester, I highlight below his extensive experience in the corporate world:
- “ Mr Fong is currently a part-time senior advisor at McKinsey in Asia-Pacific supporting Strategy and Corporate Finance with focus on transactions and CFO service lines. He has more than 30 years of experience in finance and general management at Colgate-Palmolive, a global consumer products company; He was the Chairman and CEO of Greater China and the Chief Financial Officer of Greater Asia. During his tenure with Colgate-Palmolive he has championed and supported many global and regional acquisition projects.” (Source: BWI website).
Korean celebrity Chailee Son talks about DR's Secret:
♦ Projecting earnings growth | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Although the China franchise model was adopted only in H2 2018, the company's FY18 EPS rose 31% y-o-y to 13.26c.
Further assume a conservative P/E of 18 for valuation purpose (even though I categorise BWI as a high growth stock that deserves a higher P/E rating). Based on the projections, I believe the current share price represents a solid entry point for long term investors. BW is a quality high growth play with a 28-year operating history. |
P/S
I find the BT article to be biased and unbalanced, which is extremely damaging to BWI, its shareholders and business partners. Article was damning with not a single positive point mentioned of BWL. The timing of release of the article is suspicious -- during a blackout period before the full-year results release when management had to refrain from commenting for a media article in order to avoid the risk of selectively disclosing non-public information.
I'm gratified that a fellow shareholder, Jason Wee, CFA, has given an objective rebuttal to BT's story ( BEST WORLD: Investor gives his take on BT article)
See PS Tan's previous article: ORIENTAL WATCH: Share price up on sterling 1H results, dividend
Comments
As an ex-fund manager myself always looking for good Singapore SMEs to support, I do
believe that Best World is really one of the best to have emerged over the last 5 years..and should be supported and cheered by not only the investment community but by all Singaporeans!
It is therefore completely uncalled for and quite insane for our only business journal to publish at best a half baked and at worst an almost slanderous article on BW at a sensitive time during their results period. It really looks suspicious to me and I think the authorities like SGX and CPIB should investigate this "incident" to make sure that there was no "foul play" at work.
For the record, I have been a shareholder since 2016.
I have no stake in BW.... I felt poor journalistic standards was used in trying to write the BT article.. .... you don’t see these type of calibre of shareholders speaking out in other “problem” shares....