When FY2010 result was announced, it was project to have a strong 2011.......no words on business being affected by bad weather!!!!! They should know it by late Feb when the FY2010 result was announced!!! So is the business really affected by bad weather??
Dear greenrookie and bestworld,
I am not good with the fundamentals but from my trading experience, if a stock breaks below its IPO price in the first few days of listing and always stay below its IPO price, then this stock is better to be avoided.
In the case of Anchun, I have not judged on the basic financials, so I cannot comment on the fundamentals.
BUT I saw that the share price of the Company is now below the pre-ipo price of its initial investors.
This is not a good sign! It shows that whoever is selling, either has shares below that of the pre-ipo price OR the sellers know something that the market does not know. Or else, why would they want to sell the stock.
I would rather buy when the stock price is going up, than to try dollar-averaging.
Buyers beware.
Bright world, I take your point that the management might be too bullish in it's forecast. But I take comfort in the following facts. 1) they say 2011 will be better than 2010, they did not say every quarter to be better. 2) the droughts affecting northern china is recurring almost annually, with droughts having no impact at all on anchun earning in 2009 and 2010. You may be right that weather is not to be blame but more of that miscalculation that demand will be actually affected this time round. The same thing can be said about coal prices, it has been high since Jan and there is no mention of it in feb, doesn't reflect too well on management. Morpheus, I thank you for your view, will keep that as 1 of my considerations when I scan companies next time. But your advice came too late as I have already av. Down. This is my second time buying, the first time I manage to catch the bottom and earn, hope I am right again this time. Btw, what is the pre-ipo price? where did u get that info? There are 2 possible outcomes, management is overly bullish but is still right about the sector growing and demand buoyant, then this poor result will be 1 off and might be offset in other quarters. Then I win. The next scenario is the consolidation fertillizers producers due to excess capacity actually lead to lower demand as the smaller ones was out of business before they can even expand or upgrade. Then the next quarter results should show then I just have to accept whateve loss there may be. Stock market you win some, I loss some, just hope my net gains is worth the efforts.
What a strange world... Xinhua news says the droughts situation in many provinces should be over following the start of raining season and the torrent rains for the past few days.. But... Officials are asked to prepare for FLOODs
news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2...06/06/c_13913713.htm
. The Chinese really "salted vegetable life" Coal prices has been raising for the seventh week, analysts are predicting low power generation from Hydro-dams to cause thermal coal price to increase and the low level of Yangtze waters might make transportation of coal difficult.
www.marketwatch.com/story/coal-prices-to...n-uob-2011-05-26Well
.. That's 2 weeks ago, just yesterday, xinhua news state the officials are told to Relief the effects of floods droughts and prepare for flooding...Middle and lower branches of Yangtze river to prepare for more torrent rains. Quote: Drought-hit provinces will be "basically relieved from the affects of the drought this month" as the rainy season begins, Zheng Guoguang, head of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), was quoted as saying in a report by China National Radio on Monday.
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