CENTURION

I just participated in a discussion about this counter in ValueBuddies. Looking at the last two quarters, I am not yet convinced that the business is going downhill yet due to a secular change in business environment, so I am holding on (I may be wrong, but have to stick to my own assessments and grit my teeth). CIMB just did a report on Centurion and gave it a fair value of 49 cents, if you believe in their analysis.

If you go by DCF method used by UOB, the share price target is 90.5 cents.

nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-...hat-analysts-now-say

If you go by Price/Book, as used by CIMB, then Centurion could be worth S$0.49 (based on 1x CY15 P/BV) .

Investors like me would be ....PUZZLED!

I got about the same figure as UOB using my own DCF; I think the CIMB method is too blunt an instrument to value a business.

sykn wrote: After analysing the business, I went in at 62 cents two days ago, but it dropped to 61. Have to go long on this one, but I suspect that they are not alone in the dormitory business and their once blue ocean is fast turning red with all the competitors diving in.

I also went in @ 63c. But even the price has still dropped since, I will still hold for long term for the reasons below. It still has a very positive growth outlook ahead.

- 2Q 2014 profit increased 62% excluding fair value gains and one-off impairment charge. Starting this year, the Group intends to conduct a valuation exercise for its investment
properties annually at the year end. Thus, fair value gains should not be included in comparing y-o-y profit for 2Q.
- UK Student Accommodation acquisition is expected to be completed in September 2014, thereby immediately
contributing to the Group’s revenue and profitability in 2014.

The last transacted price was 57.5 cents; the drop is a bit unnerving! Plus quite a few forumers are negative about the future of this company's business. I have gone back a few times to recheck my calculations and assessments, and if I ignore the price movements, I really have no strong reasons to dump this counter, so I am holding and going long - this is the occupation hazard for value investors - often we are not lucky enough to always buy something of great value and with the price going up after the investment.

55.5 - 56 now. Very big drop from 70+ and tempting me....At the same time, I am wondering why the heavy selling. Sigh