Photo: cathay.cn.cn.
Translated by Andrew Vanburen from
改變投資陋習 目標非黑即白
(中文翻譯,請看下面)
If you want to change your strategy, first establish a specific target for what you want to change and how you want things to look afterwards.
In the epic Chinese novel “Romance of the Three Kingdoms,” renowned military strategist Kong Ming (aka: Zhuge Liang) is one of the most stand-out characters, a true stand-up guy, and a 2,000-year old historical figure who offers valuable insights into successful modern-day investment strategies.
He regularly injects himself into a myriad of convoluted, highly hazardous conundrums that would be the undoing of most key advisors to any government – nevermind the fact that he served during one of China’s most tumultuous periods of political upheaval, several centuries ago.
But despite the fact that Kong Ming is long dead and gone, his spirit lives on with a passion, being one of the most popular virtual heroes in the rabidly popular “San Guo” or “Romance of the Three Kingdoms” suite of online games, with whole communities well-versed in his exploits and achievements – both historical and virtual.
But I would like to see his lessons applied outside of the Internet cafes, and inside both bourses and boardrooms.
For he always calculated all risks meticulously before throwing in his lot, and by that he may have been China’s most successful hedge fund manager, far before such a career designation even came into being.
On finding a wife, which he believed was the first and most important campaign of a successful politician cum-military strategist, he approached the challenge like a scout reporting back to base -- a reconnaissance mission that sounds alot like how the experts make their stock picks.
Scour the terrain, get as close to the targets without being noticed, make comparative observations of the most entrenched objects, then hasten back to the relative safety of your own military bivouac to thoughtfully review the vista you have just espied and soberly process the data in a rational way, deciding which offered the best rewards while demanding the most tolerable risk levels.
Or, jumping ahead just a bit, if you find yourself fleeing the ancient city of Jingzhou with 3,000 army cavalry in hot pursuit, try to find the poise amidst the turmoil to time your “heroic retreat” in such a way that some of the leading candidates in your nuptial search campaign are witness to your honor and bravery so that the scene can be used to your advantage down the road... provided you survive the foxhunt (with you being the fox in this case).
And this “retreat” led the armies of Wu into ambush after ambush, which Kong Ming and his allies were able to use via cumulative effect to notch up victory after victory, eventually leading to overwhelming success for his monarch Liu Bei, with Kong Ming fighting for the survival and eventual prominence of the Shu Dynasty.
Zhou Yu, leader of the opposition, thus foolishly spent so many resources by way of manpower, horses, ammunition, armaments... and most importantly, time... chasing a decoy that had piqued his interest, and all of his assets were thus tied down pursuing this “white whale” while the true objective was left unattended to and his foes gained the upper ground.
Was Kong Ming after a wife? Or out to divert the core resources of his foes away from their original targets so his commanders could charge forth unopposed?
Either way, he ended up with the girl and the glory.
Why the focus on Kong Ming, who thrived during China’s Three Kingdoms Period (220 AD to 280 AD)?
Because I believe many of the tactics and long-term strategies of Kong Ming, though nearly two millennia old, are applicable to successful investment practices in the modern world.
He became an immortal historical figure for his meticulous planning before each military campaign, no matter how extensive, and this certainly helped solidify his reputation as one of the most successful warriors/advisors in Chinese history.
He realized that a plan needed expert forethought before execution if it was to have any chance of being successful.
Yes, every journey begins with a single step.
But in the high-risk, high-stakes world of equity investment, it is better to pause before taking that first step and plan your route carefully, than to haphazardly step out in a random direction for the sole purpose of getting things in motion.
It is far more efficient to move forward deliberately and with purpose than to realize halfway down the road that the bridge is washed out up ahead and you have to hike back to square one.
Therefore, if you want to change your investment strategy... or pursue a new business plan, by all means plan it out first, with specific objectives in mind.
Avoid thinking in terms of “gray” but consider all variables in black and white. This will simplify your operations and be far, far more time efficient.
Planning is action, after all, and should not be looked down upon as a form of procrastination.
Anyone else as fascinated as I am with the history of Kong Ming can read his abbreviated life story here: http://www.travelchinaguide.com/intro/history/three_kingdoms/zhugeliang.htm
See also:
TOP 10 Market Movers Since WWII All Man-Made
改變投資陋習 目標非黑即白
(文: 黃國英, 豐盛融資資產管理部董事)
如果想改變，要改變什麼，內容務必清晰具體。
《三國演義》中，孔明有鋪「俾錦囊癮」。話說周瑜用美人計，以孫權細妹，引劉備去荊州軟禁。劉備怕死：「周瑜定計欲害劉備，豈可以身輕入危險之地？」諸葛亮驚都未驚過：「Yo!周瑜屎過匯豐(5)業績，駛乜驚。」立刻交低三個錦囊俾趙子龍，「貼肉收藏」。
孔明錦囊可借鑑。
頭兩個錦囊，見功，成功娶妻。跟住逃離荊州，被三千軍馬追捕，英雄無路，劇情自然是拆錦囊，教劉備出終極超必，動之 以情：「非夫人莫解此禍。如夫人不允，備請死於車前！」又要生，又要死，又要刀仔拮大脾。孔明妙計，孫夫人自然落叠，怒叱東吳諸將：「放條大路教過去」， 上船逃走。到周瑜親自追趕到黃州界首，雲長、黃忠和魏延伏兵盡起，大敗吳軍，再補句：「周郎妙計安天下，賠了夫人又折兵！」攪到周瑜瘡都爆埋，鮮血直飆， 昏倒地上。
「嘩，依個故事真老套，係咪日寫夜寫，無嘢好寫？」非也，現到正題。請解答以下問題(不過無錢撳)，假如當日錦囊指示僅為：「動之以情，宜避勿碰」，你係劉備，無手機問孔明，真係企哂喺度－你會跟老婆動之以情？還是叫孫夫人向周瑜求情？萬一會錯軍師之意，隨時走唔甩，反自投羅網，正宗影都無埋。
曖昧不明的指令，不論幾有心，都極難執行。想改變行為，清楚明白、非黑即白的指令，效用會超乎想像，但每被人忽略。
話說美國有兩個大學教授，希望說服人們「吃得更健康」。類似運動已有N個，永無成效，今次點算？你勸人「吃得更健康」，必有N條問題跟進：「即係多肉少菜？吃維他命？改用代糖？戒飲奶茶？」後來，兩人想到牛奶，原因是牛奶為飽和脂肪的最大來源。如果美國人只喝含脂量1%的牛奶(1%牛奶)，飽和脂肪攝取量，立刻暴減，高血壓、心臟病風險大降。
「點樣改」define清楚，行動易過借火。廣告口號： 「只買脫脂奶或1%牛奶」，再開記招，展示一大堆核突脂肪：「飲2公升全脂奶，就有咁多脂肪落肚！」眾人見狀，大呼Oh my god!高脂奶，哎到唔買。區內低脂奶的市佔率，由18%升到35%，多了一倍人立時正面改變，「吃得更健康」。
方向須非黑即白
由此可見，要改變，具體、明確界定「新」行動的內容，至為重要。
譬如買賣過度(over-trade)，乃交易者大忌－暗示胡亂出手，極唔值搏，都忍唔到手痕。
想改善但定錯目標，例如：「我要每日炒少啲」，含糊不清，必一事無成，最終只會變成：「噚日炒咗廿轉，今日炒咗十五轉，嘩，真係進步神速！」非黑即白的目標，則是：「每日day-trade限炒兩轉，一次都不能多。」每個交易日，可以不炒，可炒一轉，可炒兩轉，但絕不會有三轉。
成功改變的案例，必包含一清二楚、非黑即白的方向。
請閱讀:
諸法意為先，意主意造作
