Why i increase my cash holdings

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12 years 2 months ago #9084 by greenrookie
i sold off 1 profitable counter to increase my cash holdings to increase my warchest.
reasons:
Grecce factor- Uncertanity will provide the wall if not the drag on equity markets. Greece might run out of money by June according to 1 article in bloomberg, can't see how IMF and Euro countries / Troika will give them the money in this state.  
France - Gremany statemate- Unlikely, but a spanner in the works to increase volality and uncertainity
No meaningful correction YTD. Meaning market have not factored in the consequences of the above happening, messy default by Greeece. Maybe it won't happen, but i prepare for the worst, if the price is right, i might offload more counters.
Buy back when:
Clearer picture emerge from Europe./ or the worst happen and market factored that in. Should be a fall of more than 15% in that case.
Clear strength in US and China.
Correction of around 10% happens.
If market continues to stay resilient without any of the above happening, be patient and stay at the sideline
Just my own view to crystallise my thoughts

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12 years 2 months ago #9085 by Mel
Let me guess -- the profitable counter is a speculative one, rather than a solid blue chip.

Staying out of the market during this time is a logical thing to do for many investors. However, it depends also on your risk appetite and the specific stocks in yr port.

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12 years 2 months ago - 12 years 2 months ago #9225 by greenrookie
STI corrected close to 10%.
Looking at 
HPHT, yield close to 9%. Yes dividends might rise or fall, but this is 1 blue chip trust. An hong kong equivalent of PSA. Looking to accumulate if price fall further to around 85 cents SGD
Cambrdge REIT, look to accumulate if price fall below 50 cents
UMS,looking to accumulate at 34 cents cum dividends.
Buying back Lippo if it fall below my initial purchase price of 36 cents.
Singpost, singtel, starhub, CMA on my radar too.
 
WIll be looking only at REITS/ Trusts this time round, speculative s-chip or penny will be off limits until clearer picture emerged.
Cambridge and Lippo has no/ low fiancing needs till 2014, HPHT for its leader position, companies i think i can sleep well with. Well UMS slighly more risky, but weightage super low, so no problem.
The million dollar question, will Greece exit Euro? If it does, will it be a Lehman 2.0 event?
The effects will definitely be bigger than Lehman, given the exposure of spain and other european countries exposure to  Greece. Also governements has not much fiscal and monetary leeway to stimulate economy. 1 key difference, while lehman caught many off guard, many were preparing for Greece exit this time.
Thats' why i increase my cash holding. So instead of just 1 round of accumulating exercise, I can have 2 this year. If after correction of around 20% happens this year, I can still accumulate.
Just my thoughts.
Last edit: 12 years 2 months ago by greenrookie.

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12 years 2 months ago #9228 by Mel
greenrookie, indeed the times are uncertain and it's a great idea to go defensive and raise cash. How will Greek drama play out, I am not too confiden t of that either. Just a little thought -- markets always have a surprise or 2 in store

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12 years 2 months ago #9248 by pine
Surprise!
Dow up 135 points.
China may soon announce stimulus actions to revive economic growth

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12 years 2 months ago #9250 by greenrookie
Well, I am not surprised, technical rebound always happen after a long sell down. Has anything fundemental changed? Lets revisit my concerns:
1) Greece exit : From now till 17 June, bound to be more volality. It seems an Greece exit is inevitable. Whether a not, they exit, we can't tell for sure, but one thing is for sure, no matter what assurances the Trokia says, they have no powers over the elections results. Also, assume now that the Trokia and SYRIZA/or NEW democrats managed to have a deal, it will definitely be a watered down deal, allowing some leeway in asuerity measures or deficient targets, what will PIIGS nations do then? Also ask for the same, does seems like a slippery slope to me.
2)Clear strength from US and CHina/ or clear intervention:
Well, economics picture might change anytime, but thus far, its still unclear. However, if US and china stimulate the economy strongly, it could be good for the stocks too. But, i seriously do not think anything will take place soon. First, reservation of ammo for Greece crisis. Second, with the US election coming, I don't think congress can pass anything. Fed could do another QE, but just not so soon. For CHina, An ad-hoc reduction of reserve ratio should not be much a boost because market has been expecting them for ages, unless it comes fast and furious with cut in interest rate, but with China going through leadership transistion, I doubt they will want to risk inflation figures running amok. I however feel that the flooding of easy money will happen when GREECE DOES EXIT, everyone will be in crisis fighting mode then.
3) Corrections of 10% or more happens.
Well, YTD a meaningful correction (>5%) has finally happens, but not a deep correction. 
I might be wrong, but I stick to my plan since nothing has changed, except the correction of more than 5%. If all is good and steady, I am still rather heavily invested, will be happy too. =)

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