Well, I am not surprised, technical rebound always happen after a long sell down. Has anything fundemental changed? Lets revisit my concerns:
1) Greece exit : From now till 17 June, bound to be more volality. It seems an Greece exit is inevitable. Whether a not, they exit, we can't tell for sure, but one thing is for sure, no matter what assurances the Trokia says, they have no powers over the elections results. Also, assume now that the Trokia and SYRIZAï¼or NEW democrats managed to have a deal, it will definitely be a watered down deal, allowing some leeway in asuerity measures or deficient targets, what will PIIGS nations do then? Also ask for the same, does seems like a slippery slope to me.
2)Clear strength from US and CHina/ or clear intervention:
Well, economics picture might change anytime, but thus far, its still unclear. However, if US and china stimulate the economy strongly, it could be good for the stocks too. But, i seriously do not think anything will take place soon. First, reservation of ammo for Greece crisis. Second, with the US election coming, I don't think congress can pass anything. Fed could do another QE, but just not so soon. For CHina, An ad-hoc reduction of reserve ratio should not be much a boost because market has been expecting them for ages, unless it comes fast and furious with cut in interest rate, but with China going through leadership transistion, I doubt they will want to risk inflation figures running amok. I however feel that the flooding of easy money will happen when GREECE DOES EXIT, everyone will be in crisis fighting mode then.
3) Corrections of 10% or more happens.
Well, YTD a meaningful correction (>5%) has finally happens, but not a deep correction.
I might be wrong, but I stick to my plan since nothing has changed, except the correction of more than 5%. If all is good and steady, I am still rather heavily invested, will be happy too.