A certain confused investor sent the following. I think there are many such people suffering... SENT TO: tocosco@listedcompany.com, michael@spin.com.sg, stmoney@sph.com.sg, btnews@sph.com.sg, stforum@sph.com.sg, cdp@sgx.com cc: jonathan.ng@cimb.com, haider.ali@credit-suisse.com Wed, Oct 15, 2008 at 11:27 AM COSCO: Same day, but 2 analysts had called 5.25x difference in Target Price
Dear COSCO IR (& PR), SGX, ST, BT, I\'m invested in Cosco for sometime, and have rode through some rough times with the stock. The recent 2 analyst reports yesterday (on the same day 14th Oct 2008) by CIMB & Credit Suisse (analysts are copied) have deeply perplexed me, and I\'m extremely perturbed to say the least. Essentially, CIMB called for a target price of $2.89, and Credit Suisse downgraded Cosco to a penny stock, and the difference in both valuations is a whopping 525%. In yesterday\'s upmarket, Cosco opened high but was 1 of the only S-chips that bucked the trend and closed more than 10% lower. Needless to say, it is taking a battering again today, and it seems that the market is being led by the Credit Suisse report. 1. I\'d like COSCO investor relations to explain to me and ordinary investors what has fundamentally changed in the business, that could lead to such discrepancies in valuations. 2. I\'d hope that the 2 analysts and their companies could discuss the validity of both reports, and what is SGX\'s viewpoint on the big 525% difference in valuations which seems to have swung the market to short Cosco, and is there any violation of any nature. 3. I don\'t recall seeing another wild difference in pricing in reports on any stock on the same day, and hope that the press could perhaps come up with an education article based on such examples (if there are any else), so that investors could be correctly guided. Admittedly, I only have a low 5 figure amount invested which has more than evaporated, but still counts for something and I really hope for some accountability on reports such as these. Sincerely,
research.cimbinvest.com/research/article.../TraderPM-141008.pdf
, jonathan.ng@cimb.com CIMB:Cosco Corporation (COS SP; S$1.24): The company\'s share price stood at S$1.24 as of mid-day close, increasing by 4cts. Key catalysts for Cosco include better-than-expected offshore and conversion orders coupled with falling steel prices. We maintain a BUY call with a target price of S$2.89.
researchdisclosures.csfb.com/ccd/disclos...C.SI&date=10-14-2008
, haider.ali@credit-suisse.com Method: Our target price of S$0.55 for COSCO Corp is based on 1x 2008 BVPS. Previously, we value the company\'s dry bulk shipping business at 2009E P/E multiple of 6x and our estimate of the company\'s shipbuilding business CSG\'s value is based on 2009E P/E 7x, based on trading valuations of their peers. Risks: Risks to our target price of S$0.55for COSCO Corp. (Singapore) are: Slowdown in the global economic and trade growth can negatively impact our expectation of continued newbuild order flow. Any delays in deliveries or changes in the company\'s cost structure in delivering on its newbuild orders can affect our estimates. There is limited visibility on newbuild order pipeline or ship delivery and revenue recognition schedules. COSCO Corp\'s potential divestment of dry bulk shipping business and possible acquisition of higher shareholding in CSG and NACKS can have significant implications on our estimated earnings and value of the company. The occurrence, timing or pricing of these potential transactions is not certain.