2nd Liner Prop Stocks

Hi SB, re your question on Hiap Hoe. 
It's simple math.  Just as Sumer calculated for Superbowl, do the same for HH using surplus valuation $269.3m.

U get a surplus valuation on a per share basis by dividing $269.3m by 473 million shares of Hiap Hoe = 57 cents. 

Any more easy questions ask me. Difficult ones, ask Sumer. I have one moderately dififcult one for Sumer: Is he expecting a first year full-year operating loss from Days Hotel & Ramada Hotel?  

 

Tan Yong Keng yesterday bought another 924 lots of Chip Eng Seng shares at 80 cts, increasing his holding to 6.1069%.
There is still more up side to go to it's fair value.

 
Sumer, Bonvest own 2 district 9 freehold properties: Liat Tower & Sherton Tower. Can you caculate it's potential values.
  List Tower - Area = 38k Plot ratio = 6.1 Sherton Towers - 413 rooms. Area = 76k Plot ratio = 4.2

Hi Rock,
just some help needed here. What do you think is the estimated fair value for Chip Eng Seng? Thanks! Happy new year!

hi peter, rock, etc: Do you know who is Tan Keng Yong? He got so muuch $ to invest? He put so much in 1 stock -- this is overconcentration. When he stops buying CES, will the balloon deflate?

Hi Peter123, attach below acticale by Sumer. The sucess of Alexandre projects will increased CES value further.
 
Below is post by Sumer in: Subject :Re:Guess which SG developer plans to build this Down Under?.. 27-12.2012
 
I could not get the last msg posted properly. Hope this one breaks it into paragraphs:
Since I last wrote on CES, the stock has outperformed most prop stocks, due mainly to the consistent and aggressive share buybacks.
Perhaps the company finds value in its own shares for the following reasons:
1. Tower Melbourne - Green light has been obtained. This project could potentially yield big profit figures for CES, for the following reasons:
a. For a piece of land that is only 9,827 sq ft, CES is building a structure that has about 380,000 sq ft of net gross floor area (which can be sold). This means a plot ratio of nearly 40 times - a feat not achievable in Singapore.
b. The best thing is that the big plot ratio seems to be "free". It costs CES only A$25.5m to purchase the land, while the potential sales proceeds from the 571 apt units could be as high as A$304 million (based on A$800 psf X 380,000 sq ft).
c. Total cost of the project could be A$170m or higher, depending on what one's assumption is. One Aussie news site mentioned this "cost" figure, without specifying if the A$170m includes land and marketing/other costs. Even if one assumes A$200m total cost, the gross profit margin is A$104 million, which net of 30% tax rate, will mean A$72.8 million, or about S$91.73 million, or 14ct per share! Of course, if A$170m is indeed the total cost, then EPS will rise to 18ct.
2. 100 Pasir Panjang - The launch of this industrial project recently is a pleasant surprise, as I had expected a later date. Net saleable space is 125,596 sq ft, selling price is $1,000-1,200 psf. With land cost of $463 psf, and assuming total cost of $663 psf, I expect about $48m gross profit based on $1,050 ASP. I hear that about 30% of the units are taken up in a short 1-2 weeks.
3. Alexandra hotel shops - The NSA (net saleable area) is much smaller than earlier indicated (though the earlier figure is probably just GFA). Based on available info, the NSA is 50,918 sq ft. Assuming ASP of $5,500 psf, that will mean the retail space has a value of $280m. I am not sure if all or only some of the shops will be sold. Shop space sale could be launched next month.
My estimate of the hotel's value is $292.5m, based on $650k per key for its 450 4-star rooms. Total value of this hotel/retail project (taxation not taken into account) = $572 million vs cost of about $350 million. Surplus valuation = 34.2 ct per share.
Meanwhile, My Manhatten is 95% sold since I last wrote.
My personal estimate of CES' RNAV is now about $1.50, which includes all the profits from its condo and HDB projects but excludes its construction business as its contribution is marginal.

Someone recently said that newspaper reporters are not doing enough investigative work on corporate developments, and the case of CES was highlighted as an example (although not from a positive angle).
I guess it is precisely because analysts and reporters are not digging up enough information that it allows us retail investors to do our own homework and unearth our little gems. Googling, making phone calls to agents, viewing showflats, asking questions at AGMs, etc, are some of the homework we can do to stay ahead of the analysts, reporters and bigger boys. Here, I hope I have shared with you what info I have found on a little gem called Chip Eng Seng.