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India rubber shortage pegged at 500000 tonnes

Published on: December 09, 2010 at 10:35

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): Increasing demand for rubber and lack of supply is likely to bring about a huge shortage of natural rubber in India in coming years.

Increasing demand from rubber manufacturers coupled with stagnant production could lead to a shortage of up to 500,000 tonnes in the country in the next five years, says an industry expert.

"Demand for rubber is continuously growing but the production is not growing accordingly; it may lead to a situation where there could be a shortage of more than five lakh tonnes in the next five years," All India Rubber Industries Association President Vinod T Simon said.

He said that at present the total demand for natural rubber in the country is around 950,000 tonnes where as the production is expected to be nearly 850,000 tonnes in 2010.

"Domestic demand for natural rubber, a key component in tyre making, is likely to touch 1.5 million tonnes by 2015 but the production is projected to remain stagnant at 900,000 tonnes," Simon said.

Disruption of production in key rubber producing areas due to adverse weather conditions has pushed the prices of the commodity to record high in both international and domestic market.

"Rubber prices have tripled in a short span of time but now, we are more worried about the availability of commodity instead of their prices, as it is impossible to increase the production whereas demand is continuously growing," Simon said.

He said that even though the government was trying to increase the production- by planting rubber in one lakh hectares in Tripura, which is likely to come to production next year--it wouldn't be sufficient to meet the demand.
 Courtesy: Press Trust of India

From Commodity Online:

Rubber edges up from overnight slump in Tokyo

Published on: December 14, 2010 at 12:25

TOKYO (Commodity Online) :

Tokyo rubber futures edged up Tuesday after an overnight slump of 0.8 percent on profit booking, strengthening yen and fall in crude prices.

At 3.52 p.m Tokyo time Tuesday, May-delivery was seen trading at 396.2 yen per kilogram. The futures had experienced a small decline of 0 .8 % on Monday, coming down to 392.5 yen per kilogram or 4,703 a metric ton, reported Bloomberg.

The value of heating-oil futures declined on reports that the current winter would be less severe than anticipated in US. This brought about a dent in crude oil prices taking them down froma four day high. On NYMEX, the January contract of crude declined 0.5% and touched $88.13 a barrel.

Yen rose to 83.56 against greenback from a figure of 83.39 even as Federal Reserve policy makers gear up to discuss interest rates and bond purchases Tuesday.

The slowing down of rubber rally is perceived to be short-term as natural rubber prices in Thailand registers a rise.

The largest producer and exporter of natural rubber, Thailand, has seen an increase in cash prices of the commodity that touched record high of 141.05 baht a kilogram from a Monday low of 138.55 baht due to increased demand from China and India.

Heavy rains in Thailand have ensured a slump in domestic production of rubber. The prices may rise further because of farmers would reduce tapping levels, known as “wintering”.

Tyre manufacturers have announced increase in product prices.

In Shanghai, May-delivery rubber climbed as much as 1.9 % to a one-month high of 35,990 yuan ($5,408) a ton Monday. The contract had climbed to a record high of 38,920 yuan on Nov. 11.
  

Rubber boom to stay on increased China demand

Published on: December 08, 2010 at 17:10

BEIJING (Commodity Online): Speculation that Chinese car sales may boost the demand for natural rubber has led industry experts to believe that the rising price of rubber is here to stay on top for some more time. Prices of rubber in Thailand had a jump over this. China is the largest user and importer of rubber.

May-delivery rubber on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange gained 0.3 percent to settle at 377.2 yen per kilogram ($4,492 a metric ton). The price reached a 30-year high of 383 yen on Nov. 11 and has gained 37 percent this year.

China’s passenger car sales jumped to a record in November, climbing 27 percent from a year ago, the China Daily reported, citing the China Passenger Car Association. Physical rubber prices in Thailand, the world’s largest producer and exporter, increased 1.1 percent from yesterday to a record, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.

“Chinese demand for physical rubber remains strong, supporting the futures prices,” said Hisaaki Tasaka, an analyst at Tokyo-based broker ACE Koeki Co.

Strong Thai prices indicate that China may be stepping up purchases. The cash rubber price climbed to a record 137.05 baht ($4.54) per kilogram from 135.55 baht yesterday, the institute said on its website.

Supply is tight as output in Thailand and other Asian producers reduced by heavy rain and flooding, gains in Tokyo futures were limited as oil retreated from a 26-month high, weakening the appeal of natural rubber as an alternative to synthetic products used in tires Tasaka said” Bloomberg quoted him as saying.

Exporters from Taiwan are hoping that prices will remain “strong” next year as global consumption increases faster than supply.

Passenger car sales in China, the largest auto market, exceeded 1.28 million units last month, rising 10.5 percent from October, the China Daily reported, citing the car association. Sales will continue to gain in December, Rao Da, secretary general of the association said, according to the newspaper.

May-delivery rubber in Shanghai closed down 3.1 percent at 32,200 Yuan ($4,835) a ton. The price retreated from a record 38,920 Yuan on Nov. 11 as China has taken steps to curb speculation in commodity prices after data showed the nation’s inflation accelerated to a two-year high.

China may raise interest rates this weekend, the China Securities Journal reported on Tuesday.

In Indian market, rubber futures at NMCE December contract are currently trading at Rs. 19815, a decline of 0.41 per cent. The contract gained a high of Rs.20020 per quintal in the early sessions. Volume traded is 333 as of now 

Rubber Climbs to Record for Second Day as Supply May Tighten

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber climbed to a record for a second day amid concern that supply from Thailand, the world's largest producer, may tighten further as the nation's growing region enters low-production season early next year.

May-delivery rubber on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange climbed as much as 1.2 percent to 400.1 yen per kilogram (4,794 a metric ton) before trading at 397.4 yen at 9:15 a.m. local time.

Shipments from Thailand decreased after heavy rain and flooding reduced latex production, worsening a supply shortage as demand expands led by China, the world's largest consumer.

China's sales of passenger cars including multipurpose and sport-utility vehicles increased 29.3 percent to 1.34 million last month, higher than the previous record of 1.32 million in January, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The pace of growth was the fastest since April.

Cash rubber in Thailand surged to a record 138.55 baht per kilogram yesterday, boosted by a tight supply and the Tokyo rally, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.

The price will likely extend gains as latex output in the country starts a seasonal decline as early as next month, according to Hisaaki Tasaka, an analyst at Tokyo-based broker ACE Koeki Co.

--Editors: Jarrett Banks, Matthew Oakley

Where is natural rubber price heading?

Published on: November 30, 2010 at 08:50

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online) : Tyre or a ‘round made of any solid stone or wood which rotates’ is perhaps the major discovery that revolutionized human history apart from fire.

We cannot imagine a world without movements and tyre provides that, even while we were flying.

When rubber was used to make tyres or coat tyres, nobody expected the sticky white glue could become one of the most sought after non food agri commodity in the world.

Ever since the automobile industry came to the top, tyre for that matter rubber remained at the top despite swinging changes in prices. But off late rubber prices jumped leaps and bounds and likley to remain at the top for a while.

What makes such a quick change of scene? Let’s find out some of the reasons.

Lack of enough supply due to production declines in producing countries owing to poor weather remained the main reason for a price surge. The price rise is on the basis of fundamentals. There is global tightness in availability.

The challenge for rubber user industry is how to manage the cost of rubber, a key raw material.

See it in an Indian perspective. India’s rubber output is expected to rise to 1.15 million tons by 2015.

The current yearly rubber output is estimated at 8,40,000 tone and Southern Indian state of Kerala accounts for 90% of the country’s rubber output.

However on an industrial view, lack of enough rubber supply is to hit India very much as India continued to record very good growth in tyre sector demand. Tyre production in India in the first half of this financial year increased 28% while the exports registered an increase of 18%.

The production increased in all tyre segments while growth was negative in exports of truck/bus tyres, light commercial vehicle and tractor tyres, according to the latest data by the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association.

The panacea lies in use of the commodity futures market rather than blaming it based on myths and wrong perception.

Commodity futures market has many types of stakeholders with different objectives; therefore they take different opposite and diverse decision and give opportunity to the users to be able to buy at cheaper price.

Producers always want the highest possible price and start holding back the stock at the time of rising price at that time speculators who have already bought the futures start selling and book profit, so this additional group of seller appears. There are day traders who appear to be seller if they have bought earlier in the day.

There could be investors who do not find it attractive to carry over their position if the future price is not high and goes in backwardation, they off load their purchases.

These sellers don't need to move their inventory; their supply is not affected by the weather. These new groups of sellers are available only in the futures market on one single platform and they participate from all over the country.

There is myth that if daily price limit is reduced there would be less volatility. If we reduce the daily price cap even small manipulators would be able to manipulate the market, reduce the depth and liquidity and the futures market would fail to perform the key function of price discovery and price risk management. It is enabling provision.

Currently the lowest daily price limit that commodity markets regulator, Forward Market Commission allows is 4% and that is applicable to rubber.

For metals it is as high as 9%. When daily price limit is kept very narrow say 2% then manipulators can keep the order at the opening itself at 1% then trade would stop as upper circuit would be hit and go in cooling period and then they would put another 1% up order and then trade would stop for the whole day.

When daily price limit is kept 4% then they are afraid to manipulate because they would have to take the hit on very large volume of order and market automatically corrects because one needs large fund to put at risk, whereas in case of very narrow band they could easily manipulate. Globally the daily price limits on rubber are very high.

In SICOM it goes as high as 10%, in TOCOM it is set at the start of each clearing period, in China SHFE it is 5%. Current data shows that 80% of times the daily price limit at NMCE has been within 2%.

Indian regulator FMC has expertise to use various risk management tools such as daily price limit, initial margin, additional margin, special margin, and mark to market, position limits and penalties etc and uses all these tools very effectively as is appropriately required.

It monitors the trading live on line. On the request of Rubber Board, FMC has already brought it down from 9% which was based on global standard to bare minimum of 4%. When limit was 9% the stock in exchange warehouse was as high as over 12,000 MT.

On the global scenario, rubber spot and futures prices also climbed on continuing speculation that demand will expand for the commodity and as supply is limited from Thailand, the largest exporter.

Major producing countries of natural rubber are Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. This is the reason why many of the large tire companies have vast holdings in South East Asia. Small producers equally play an important role.

China, which will surpass the US to become the largest market for industrial rubber products, will account for over one-third of all additional demand generated through 2013.

India will also record strong gains, and sales growth is expected to be good as well in a number of lower-volume markets, like Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Advances will continue to be strong in Eastern Europe. The future of the rubber industry is tied to the global economy.

April-delivery rubber on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange gained as much as 2.6 percent to 368.7 yen per kilogram ($4,419 a metric ton) before settling at 362.6 yen. The price reached a 30-year high of 383 yen on Nov. 11.

May-delivery rubber in Shanghai lost 1.8 percent to 31,690 yuan ($4,765) a ton The price retreated from a record 38,920 yuan on Nov. 11 on concern that China, the largest consumer, may take additional steps to curb inflation and slow its economic growth

Rubber supply from Thailand and other Asian producers remains tight after rain and flooding disrupted plantation work.

The Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said cash price of natural rubber in the country gained 0.2 percent to 131.55 baht ($4.3 per kilogram today, boosted by strong demand amid a supply shortage.

China’s recent moves to crack down on speculation in commodities helped price drops for goods from cotton to copper, according to country’s NDRC.

However, the curbs are not good enough to arrest price hike for rubber in the country and so failed to influence global prices, analysts said.

Has rubber price reached a point from there a return is impossible, only time will tell. So keep your fingers crossed.

Rubber prices climb on Thai weather speculations

Published on: December 16 2010 16:30 GMT

BANGKOK (Commodity Online) : The prices of rubber soared high on the speculation that heavy rainfall may hit Thailand in coming days which may cause a supply shortage. Thailand is the biggest producer and exporter of rubber[/b].

May-delivery rubber on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange gained 0.8 percent to settle at 396.7 yen a kilogram ($4715 a metric ton). The contract climbed to a record 400.1 yen on Dec. 14.

According to some weather forecasts southern Thailand will get more rainfall this week, which may shorten the supply from there. In fact southern Thailand produces 80 percent of the nations rubber production.

There is a high demand for rubber in the two top importers Indian and China. This will also fuel the prices. The prices remained at an all-time high.

“The warning about rainfall prompted investors to buy the commodity on concerns that production may fall further,” said Chaiwat Muenmee, analyst at DS Futures Co., said by phone from Bangkok. “The record Thai price also provided positive sentiment to the market,” he said. Bloomberg quoted.

The cash price in Thailand remained at a record 141.05 baht ($4.69) a kilogram today, boosted by tight supply, the Thai institute said today on its website.

May-delivery rubber in Shanghai gained as much as 1.9 percent to 35,400 yuan ($5,312) a ton before closing at 35,050 yuan. The contract climbed to a record 38,920 yuan on Nov. 11.

Rubber futures may extend their rally, climbing 22 percent to a record, as plantations in Thailand and Indonesia enter their low-production season, rubber is set to advance early next year,” said Sugitani, senior director at Newedge Japan Inc. who correctly predicted in September that prices would rally to a record.

End-users will probably rush to buy rubber while it is available as wintering will slash output, he said in an interview yesterday,

Wintering is the low-production season from February to April. Prices may rise to 480 yen by June. Bloomberg quoted.

In the wake of rising demand from China and India Indonesia may also boost up their rubber production next year. Indonesia is currently the second highest exporter of rubber next to Thailand.

According to the Rubber Association of Indonesia, Output of the commodity used to make tires and gloves may gain to between 2.6 million tons to 2.7 million tons as a rainy season that may last until the first quarter of next year is forecast to have a limited impact to production.

In India at NMCE Rubber January contract closed at Rs.20514 per quintal, higher by 1.47 per cent. The contract reached a high of Rs.20860 per quintal and a low of Rs.20500 in the early sessions. Volume traded is 2557 tonnes.