Chip Eng Seng

..

Hi potatolvr, re your questions on CES, which I am migrating over from the “2nd liner property stocks” thread, here are my personal views:

1. I prefer using more prudence in estimating values, so I have an $800k tag for each of CES’ hotel room. Alexandra is quite an untested hotel area, so I would be happy with $800k per key.

2. CES has already apportioned the cost of the land for hotel and shops at Alexandra. This can be found in its 2014 corporate presentation. The figures are: $122.6m for hotel and $66.4m for shops. I have input these figures for my own calculation. I think if CES keeps the hotel as an investment property for a few years it may perhaps treat the sale later (if any) as non-taxable.

3. I don’t think CES will bleed for unsold Fulcrum units. My estimate of its break-even is less than $1,300psf. They will just make less profit if they slash prices to $1,500-600 psf. I don’t see the company making any provision for loss.

4. My estimate of CES’ RNAV based solely on its development profits and investment properties, excluding all Aussie projects for prudence, is about $1.50. I have not taken into account its construction business value nor potential profits if TM goes ahead, or profits from its 3 other Aussie sites. My estimate of its current year EPS is about 30ct. I am hoping for a 6ct dividend per share, but that’s just my wish.

It appears that analysts like to use some prudence in estimates, leaving room for them to upgrade a stock's target price later on. I hope this is what analysts are doing for CES at the moment.

Tks Sumer.

Do u have any idea where to check whether all units at Alex Central had been sold?

What I read was that 2 units were still left unsold, one of which was the super market ?

Hi Potatolvr,

Yes, what I understand is that there are 2 units left at Alexandra Central, and since I saw an ad by an agent for the supermarket unit, I suspect this big unit is one of the remainder unsold units.

You can Google squarefoot + the name of the commercial development for some ideas about recently sold units, but the data is a bit patchy.

Meanwhile, Junction 9 has seen more shop units sold in recent months, and so perhaps we can expect this positive figure to be reported in CES' 1H results due on 6 Aug.

Hi Sumer,
Wonder that how do you get the shop units has sold more units in recent month? Mind to share?

Thanks.

Hi RT Knight, you can get updated transactions of recent developer sales through:

www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends-and-analysis/non-residential

Just need to register an account.

There has been a couple of new sales for the month of May and June.