CEL Australia would like to inform that while demolition work has been delayed, we are moving toward a resolution and recommencement of works on site. We look forward to seeing this spectacular project rise into Melbourne's skyline and advise that the expected date for completion is early 2018."
The completion date is delayed from the original 2017, but hope that this is an indication that a resolution on the dispute is probable.
NRA has a post-Q1 report on Chip Eng Seng released today, titled "Patience will be rewarded".
It is projecting $252.2m gross profit for FY 2014, a tad lower than my estimate of $280-300m. EPS is about 28ct, based on their estimate. PE will drop to below 3 times.
NRA's target price for CES is $1.04, based on sum of the parts, ie, breaking the valuation into the construction biz and the prop development biz.
I don't have a price target for CES, but I will be patiently waiting for the next few quarters of good results. It would be a bonus if, after the record profits for the full year, the company declares as much as 8-10ct DPS. That would be a great reward for patience.
This is for the benefit of those who track only the Chip Eng seng track:
Here is a reply I posted on 2nd liner prop stocks track:
"Hi potatolover, I had created a separate track for Chip Eng Seng in Novermber 2013, as I foresaw that the counter would have enough catalysts and angles to garner regular postings. You may want to check it out.
I started alerting readers on CES in September 2012 (under a teaser thread: “Guess which SG developer plans to build this Down Under”) when the stock was trading at about 46ct. Since then, it had dished out 8ct dividend, and the share price is now 80.5ct, which means a total return of 42.5ct or 91% in under 2 years. I like property stocks which have the security of high asset backing (50% discount to RNAV) yet is expected to post glowing earnings and pay out good dividends: I have safety, good income and excitement all rolled in.
My take on CES’ RNAV is lower (but its moving with news flow of course), especially if I write off Tower Melbourne and do not take into account its un-launched Aussie sites, for prudence.
But yes, CES remains my favourite stock right now, mainly because:
1. It is expected to report an EPS of about 30ct for FY 2014. Post-2014, Junction 9 and 9 Residences should also contribute in a major way, and hopefully if TM goes ahead, Melbourne projects will provide the rest of the bigger earnings.
2. I am hoping it raises DPS to 6ct, even if part of it is special dividend, for FY 2014.
3. Its management has proven to be hardworking and agile, managing to clinch lucrative sites in Singapore previously (until the competition gets too hot here), still bidding for sites at reasonable offers, moving early into Melbourne (albeit TM being an uncertain project as of now), generous dividend payout (which means respect for retail shareholders’ interest), and humble and friendly major shareholder/management.
another good post by Sumer. Totally agree that, the next 6-9 months CEL will be on the uptrend, unless big market crash.
If you can read Chinese, you may read the CEL analysis in below website.
Sumer, good posting. After analyzing this stock and reading your post as well as a few from other forumers, I am convinced and decided to go in, even at 82 cents! Thank you.
