If we refer back to previous run-up, company last bought back shares at 60 cents (31 Dec 2012) before the share price ran up to close to 90 cents (Feb 2013)
That was a 50% jump!!!
If 90 cents is the last level company is now buying (as of 26 Aug 2014), can the share price reach $1.35 (or 50% gain from current level)?
I think $1.35 is a distinct possibility as the RNAV is way beyond $1.35
My preliminary estimate of RNAV (all known local and overseas projects) is $2.25.
Would like to find out how can we estimate the potential profit from the Doncaster project?
Outside Singapore, the Group will continue to focus on preparing its properties in Melbourne
(Doncaster and Victoria Street) for launch. Notably, the Group intends to launch its residential
development in Doncaster before the end of 2014. The proposed development will feature
approximately 105 townhouses as well as 72 low rise apartments.
With the completion of A&A works at San Centre by end of 2014 and the commissioning of Alexandra Park Hotel in mid-2015, the recurring income from investment properties will be strongly boosted.
The preliminary estimate is as follows:-
1. Park Hotel
When hotel TOPs in mid-2015, it will be passed over to Park Royal Group for management.
$100 (per room per day) x 450 (capacity) x 365 days x 0.83 (tax rate) = $13.6 mil (net income per year)
2. Refurbished San Centre (grade B office; 10 storeys out of 12 storeys to be rent out)
Rental income = 84,000 sq Ft (NLA) x $6 PSF per mth x 12 mths x 0.83 (tax rate) = $5.0 mil (net income per year)
3. 420 St Kilda Rd - Office Building in CBD Melbourne
Rental income = 8% (rental yield) x A$45.3 mil x 1.2 (exchange rate) x 0.83 = $3.6 mil (net income per year)
Total rental income from above 3 investment properties = $22.2 mil per year or 3.5 cents EPS.
The above rental income from investment properties coupled with the existing 3 cents EPS from construction arm (per year) , it should not be a tall order for the company to increase the regular dividend from the current 4 cents to 6 cents going forward.
Recurring income will stabilize the share price at a higher level, say $1.20 (dividend yield of 6 cents or 5% yield).
Although at $1.20, it is still trading at 25% discount to RNAV of ~$1.60 (excluding Fulcrum, Fernvale and all other overseas projects)