Chip Eng Seng

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19 Aug 2014 12:26 - 19 Aug 2014 12:34 #20685 by potatolover
Replied by potatolover on topic Chip Eng Seng
CES is still very undervalued.

Roxy Pacific
Book NAV = 29.5 cents
ANAV (adjusted NAV) or RNAV = 66.6 cents
Current Share Price = 58 cents
Discount to ANAV = 13%
Premium above book NAV = 97%

Wee Hur
Book NAV = 24 cents
RNAV = ??
Share price = 38 cents
Discount to RNAV = ?
Premium above book NAV = 58%

Oxley
Book NAV = 17 cents (Dec 2013)
RNAV = ??
Share price = 63
Discount to RNAV = ?
Premium above book NAV = 270%.


Applying the above to CES case
Book NAV = 80 cents (Q2-2014)
Share price = 87 cents
RNAV (by end 2014) = ~$1.15
RNAV (by end 2015) = ~$1.60
RNAV (by end 2018) = ~$2.23

15% discount to the above RNAV
end FY14 - $0.98
end FY15 - $1.36
end FY18 - $1.90
Last edit: 19 Aug 2014 12:34 by potatolover.

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22 Aug 2014 16:07 #20696 by axe
Replied by axe on topic Chip Eng Seng
(NRH) Chip Eng Seng - Increasing its portfolio of recurring revenue

+
+

Chip Eng Seng - Increasing its portfolio of recurring revenue
2014-08-22 01:27:35.431 GMT

Maintain forecasts and recommendation. We maintain our full year forecasts given that the lower-than-expected 2Q14 profits was mainly due to timing recognition issues with Belysa. As a result, our SOTP fair value remains at S$1.04. With a 29% potential upside and an attractive 5% dividend yield, maintain overweight.

Provider ID: 00000358


-0- Aug/22/2014 01:27 GMT

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24 Aug 2014 01:57 #20707 by potatolover
The most recent share buyback on 22 Aug came as a pleasant surprise.

One might be wondering why the company did not do the buyback during the recent pullback to 79 cents...

Any view on this pls? Tks.

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24 Aug 2014 03:28 #20709 by potatolover
Replied by potatolover on topic Chip Eng Seng
Hi Sumer

NRA capital has forecast the following surplus figure

a. investment properties ($21mil)
b. Hotel surplus ($68mil)


Do u think that the figures are on the very conservative side?
(my estimate of the hotel surplus is ~$184mil).
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26 Aug 2014 01:17 #20722 by valueHunter88
Replied by valueHunter88 on topic Chip Eng Seng
Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd- PhillipCapital Market Watch, enjoy!

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26 Aug 2014 23:12 #20726 by sumer
Replied by sumer on topic Chip Eng Seng
Hi plover, I think we all use different cost and value assumptions, leading to different surplus for CES' Alexandra hotel.

I am surprised at NRA's figures too, since they had assumed a $850k per key value, which is higher than my assumption of $800k. The report did not indicate how much total cost they assign to the hotel development, but if you work backwards, a $850k per key would give the hotel a market value of $382.5m. A $68m surplus (assume no corporate tax)means NRA estimated the hotel to cost $314.5m (land and all other costs). Since land cost is clearly spelled out by CES itself to be $122.6m for the hotel portion, that leaves $191.9m as construction and other costs for the hotel.

This is a strangely high figure considering that CES awarded construction to Keong Hong for the whole project (hotel plus shops) for only $101m. Even if other costs (like beds and such) are added in, that will never add to $191.9m.

I am not sure my maths above is correct, but Phillip Securities' estimate of the hotel surplus of $139m does make NRA's figure look odd. My own is slightly below Phillip's figure.

In any case, I like CES' recent Fernvale sites purchase, and I think the sites can be quite profitable (perhaps EPS of 12-15ct), compared to what I read (that it will just be keeping its construction arm occupied).
Today's continued share buyback at nearly 90ct is another vote of confidence by the company.

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