Guess which SG developer plans to build this Down Under?

Dear Sumer, Welcome back, always a pleasure reading what u have to say. Can I just ask a silly question, u mention calling agents as one of your ways to scuttlebutt, is that how u obtain info on the sales price and number of sales of the various development? Also, if u dun mind, can u enlighten me on how u calculate RNAV? I google online and the various sources have all different definitions and calculations. Appreciate your reply. Thank you very much in advance.

Welcome back Sumer, good to hear from you again. One question I have regarding the net gross floor area of Tower Melbourne of 380,000 sqt. Care to share how you got this number? It seems small to me. My estimate is at least 450,000 sqt. Did you include the retail and parking spaces? These are sellable too.

I could not get the last msg posted properly. Hope this one breaks it into paragraphs:
 Since I last wrote on CES, the stock has outperformed most prop stocks, due mainly to the consistent and aggressive share buybacks.
 Perhaps the company finds value in its own shares for the following reasons:
 
1. Tower Melbourne - Green light has been obtained. This project could potentially yield big profit figures for CES, for the following reasons:
 
a. For a piece of land that is only 9,827 sq ft, CES is building a structure that has about 380,000 sq ft of net gross floor area (which can be sold). This means a plot ratio of nearly 40 times - a feat not achievable in Singapore.
 
b. The best thing is that the big plot ratio seems to be "free". It costs CES only A$25.5m to purchase the land, while the potential sales proceeds from the 571 apt units could be as high as A$304 million (based on A$800 psf X 380,000 sq ft).
 
c. Total cost of the project could be A$170m or higher, depending on what one's assumption is. One Aussie news site mentioned this "cost" figure, without specifying if the A$170m includes land and marketing/other costs. Even if one assumes A$200m total cost, the gross profit margin is A$104 million, which net of 30% tax rate, will mean A$72.8 million, or about S$91.73 million, or 14ct per share! Of course, if A$170m is indeed the total cost, then EPS will rise to 18ct.
 
2. 100 Pasir Panjang - The launch of this industrial project recently is a pleasant surprise, as I had expected a later date. Net saleable space is 125,596 sq ft, selling price is $1,000-1,200 psf. With land cost of $463 psf, and assuming total cost of $663 psf, I expect about $48m gross profit based on $1,050 ASP. I hear that about 30% of the units are taken up in a short 1-2 weeks.
 
3. Alexandra hotel shops - The NSA (net saleable area) is much smaller than earlier indicated (though the earlier figure is probably just GFA). Based on available info, the NSA is 50,918 sq ft. Assuming ASP of $5,500 psf, that will mean the retail space has a value of $280m. I am not sure if all or only some of the shops will be sold. Shop space sale could be launched next month.
 
My estimate of the hotel's value is $292.5m, based on $650k per key for its 450 4-star rooms. Total value of this hotel/retail project (taxation not taken into account) = $572 million vs cost of about $350 million. Surplus valuation = 34.2 ct per share.
 
Meanwhile, My Manhatten is 95% sold since I last wrote.
 
My personal estimate of CES' RNAV is now about $1.50, which includes all the profits from its condo and HDB projects but excludes its construction business as its contribution is marginal.
 
Someone recently said that newspaper reporters are not doing enough investigative work on corporate developments, and the case of CES was highlighted as an example (although not from a positive angle).
I guess it is precisely because analysts and reporters are not digging up enough information that it allows us retail investors to do our own homework and unearth our little gems. Googling, making phone calls to agents, viewing showflats, asking questions at AGMs, etc, are some of the homework we can do to stay ahead of the analysts, reporters and bigger boys. Here, I hope I have shared with you what info I have found on a little gem called Chip Eng Seng.
 
PS: I am back, but will probably not contribute regularly
 

Hi Edifice,
I estimated TM's GFA based on the dropbox info available here:
www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1500584&page=13
 - look at Queenbourke's posting.
 
The floor plan at the dropbox link shows a total of 490+ units. 70+ units were missing, which I found comes from one whole side on the 16th-31st floors. I added up the 490+ units' individual sizes and arrived at 336,750 sq ft. Since the missing 70+ units is on the side which are mainly made up of smaller units, I then estimated they may add up to a figure that brings total GFA to 380,000 sq ft. I am assuming $0 value for retail space for conservative reason, just in case I overestimate the GFA for the residential units. I also remember there were penthouses (which would be larger in area), but to be conservative, I am ignoring this.
 
Thanks for pointing out car park space; you are probably correct, and owners may have to pay for car park lots. This will certainly boost the gross sales proceeds and profits. It's good that we share info and ideas since sometimes we do forget this and that.
 
Greenrookie, sometimes I call agents up to see when certain projects are due for launch, launch prices, sales figures, etc. Sometimes they send me links to floor plans, etc. Sales figures can be gotten from visiting showflats as well as URA's website. My Manhattan's latest figure is from URA's site for eg, where you can see 288 units are sold to date, out of 301.
 
RNAV calculation: this is the tricky one as various assumptions are used. I would say as long as I use conservative estimates here and there, I would not expect to err too much on the aggressive side. For an unsold project, for eg, I would take total estimated sales value, minus total estimated costs, minus taxes, then use a discount method if I wish. To simplify things, sometimes, I drop the discounting but instead make lower estimates on selling prices and GFA (unless I know the exact figures), higher costs, etc, as it is difficult to know exactly how many months to discount a profit (since many projects TOP way earlier than earlier estimates).
 

Thanks Sumer for your explanation. The amount of homework that you have done is really incredible, I must say... So if we include the penthouse, retail, and parking space, it will probably hit more than 420,000 sqft. Further boost to your RNAV calculation. As for 100 Pasir Panjang and Alexandra hotel, I supposed you also called the agent, got the floor plan and calculated the net sellable area of 125,596 sqft and 50,918 sqft respectively, right?

Edifice,
Alexandra shop space floor plan can be found here:
www.singaporenewlaunchguru.com/commercia...tel-retail-mall-cel/
100PP floor plan i got it from an agt. You can the floor plan (without exact sizes) here:
www.100pasirpanjang.sg/ - It's a beautiful building.