turnaround stories?

danzing87
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12 years 6 months ago #7252 by danzing87

Replied by danzing87 on topic Re:Re:turnaround stories?

greenrookie: yep you're right and i have to say there are really some good biz which are earning reasonably well.. net cash position.. (China Taisan) but i think for s-chips, it's really more than just looking at low business valuation and strong earnings potential.. i think with the extremely poor sentiments, analysis should be based more on the case of value trap.. instead of looking at earnings alone, we should also see if management is active in creating strong value for its minority holders.. one of the key factors i look out for: - whether management is increasing stake in its s-chip: very often, management will opt for dual-listing either TDRs or HKex.. simply because valuation will be much better there.. business in China is also nearer.. people value the business much better than in Singapore, where it is far away.. if they decided to dual-list, then as simple as it is, management wont care too much abt their listing in sgx, if valuation is better elsewhere.. - share buybacks.. can be a good indicator but unless management put their own money into it, it won't be a strong catalyst.. - strong dividends another way to unlock value is to start paying out dividends (with a strong payout ratio).. hopefully being able to garner interest and unlock its value..

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danzing87
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12 years 6 months ago #7253 by danzing87

Replied by danzing87 on topic Re:Re:Re:turnaround stories?

the closest unlocking of value, which i can foresee for s-chips, will be privatisation... but that will be along the range of 30-40% returns.. and it's relatively much lower when compared to a potential multiple bagger..

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cheongwee.
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12 years 6 months ago #7259 by cheongwee.

Replied by cheongwee. on topic Re:turnaround stories?

which s-chip are recession proof?? i believe if there is a recession, this round it is going to be serious.
So do u expect the major shareholder to take it private.??even if he will , he will do it when mkt is veryt bad, so he can takeover cheap.

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Dongdaemun
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12 years 6 months ago #7279 by Dongdaemun

Replied by Dongdaemun on topic Re:turnaround stories?

cheongwee: I am turning a bit more optimistic. the market could be bottoming --- which is a process and not a single event --- so it will take time and there will be ups & downs, but not violent falls. My confidence is now on stocks with a strong growth potential (example Trek 2000), a resilient business model (like ARA Asset ) and a domestic industry that is very busy ( example: Hafary and Koon).

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greenrookie
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12 years 6 months ago #7302 by greenrookie

Replied by greenrookie on topic Re:turnaround stories?

The equity markets has recovered rather significantly since STI reach an low of 2520, some of the major markets has recovered close to 10% from a week again. So will the momemtum continue?
I certainly hope they will, but I might take some profits off the table if STI rally strongly again today, because i believe STI will most probably be rather tightly ranged bounded for the next few weeks, with higher tendency for it to fall than rise.
Again, I must admits I do not read charts although i do follow some support and resistance points touted by analysts. The reasons for the recovery to falter is simply:
1) I believe the markets has priced in rather significantly that a forceful and comprehensive package from Europe will emerge. It most probably will, but it will not be without controvesies, and the difficulties can easily be taken as opportunties to selldown. If a lesser solution is proposed, then selling will be significant.
For the rise to continue, we need,
1) US companies earnings to beats forecasts and if outlook is bullish (very unlikely), then Volia.
2) Economic indicators such as jobs, comsumers' sentiments and industrial and service numbers to improve in US/ and Euro, a rather tall order.
I however, do not think that a new low will happen and the bottom should has passed us.

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Rich
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12 years 6 months ago #7307 by Rich

Replied by Rich on topic Re:turnaround stories?

Greenrookie> fundamentally, the economies in Asia are fine, except for a slowing down that will spare some of the thriving industries such as construction in Singapore.

Today, there is momentum and recovery in Asia markets -- those jokers who got hammered on fears of Europe crashing -- export and resource firms are among the biggest gainers. As they say, when sentiment turns around.....even you will abandon your plan and just stay around for the ride up. I hope it will be a ride up.

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