Hidden Value in Yishun: The Property Play Bracing for a ~$110M Profit Recognition

Sing Holdings ($0.62) is about to reveal a massive earnings jump.

The property developer's numbers will be driven by the completion of its fully sold-out Executive Condominium project in Yishun, North Gaia, and the receipt of a Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) in July 2025.

NorthGaia overview

Unlike standard condominium projects where revenue is recognized progressively, EC revenue and profit are recognized only upon obtaining the TOP.

Sing Holdings issued a profit alert last Friday (23 Jan).

LeeSzeHao portrait Lee Sze Hao, CEO of Sing HoldingsLim & Tan Securities, in a note, highlights several key factors that make this project lucrative:

Fully Sold Status: The development is 100% sold out, which "provides unusually high earnings visibility".
Margin Protection: Sing Holdings secured land costs for North Gaia at approximately S$576 psf before the recent cycle of construction cost inflation.

This fortuitious timing will help the group "preserve margins despite higher build costs across the sector".
Significant Profit Estimates: Lim & Tan estimates that North Gaia could generate a net profit of up to S$110 million.

On a per-share basis, this translates to 27-28 cents, accounting for over 40% of the company's current equity value.

A Pro-forma Valuation Play

The report suggests that the market has not yet fully priced in this windfall.

While the group's reported Net Asset Value (NAV) sits at 79.1 cents per share, adding the expected profits from North Gaia implies a pro-forma NAV above $1.00.

With the stock trading at $0.62, Lim & Tan notes that the valuation remains "compelling" even after a recent run-up following a profit alert.

Is a Special Dividend on the Cards?

The most exciting prospect for income-seeking investors is the potential for a special dividend.

Lim & Tan points to the company's historical precedent: following the TOP of its Parc Botannia project in FY2019, Sing Holdings paid a dividend of 1.85 cents per share.

"Applying a similar payout ratio this year would imply a dividend of c.4.4cts/share, translating into an estimated forward yield of around 7.1% based on the prevailing share price."

However, the report balances this optimism with a note on management's future capital needs.

The group may choose to "prioritise capital allocation towards its upcoming Chuan Grove development" — a large-scale, multi-year project in District 19 being developed in a joint venture with Sunway Developments.

Between the deep discount to pro-forma NAV and the potential for a 7.1% forward yield, Lim & Tan recommends that investors "take a closer look" at this property player.

Hidden Value in Yishun: The Property Play Bracing for a ~$110M Profit Recognition

A Pro-forma Valuation Play

The Lim & Tan report is here.

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