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CGS INTERNATIONAL |
UOB KAYHIAN |
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Thai Beverage Margin expansion to drive earnings recovery
■ We came away positive post Thai Bev’s FY25 briefing as strong margin expansion trend is likely to continue into FY26F. ■ We expect EBITDA margin to improve 50bp in FY26F on lower input costs across segments, providing relief against elevated marketing spend. ■ THBEV’s diversification into new regions and product lines should also bring revenue growth, in our view. ■ Dividend yield of 5% is still attractive to us despite unchanged FY25 DPS of THB0.62. Reiterate Add, valuations remain inexpensive at 10x fwd P/E.
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REITs 3Q25 Round-Up: Poised For An Upturn Highlights
• Two out of the 16 large cap S-REITs under our coverage surpassed expectations. FLT saw occupancy for logistics properties in Australia gain 4.3ppt qoq to 100% in 4QFY25. SUN has received a favourable ruling from the ATO, which has a positive impact of 3.7% on the 2025 DPU. • Safe haven inflows keep domestic interest rates depressed. Three-month compounded SORA eased 174bp to 1.33% in 10M25. • Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY blue-chip S-REITs with specific catalysts: CLAR (Target: S$4.02), CLAS (Target: S$1.56), KDCREIT (Target: S$2.65), KREIT (Target: S$1.20) and LREIT (Target: S$0.79).
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UOB KAYHIAN |
LIM & TAN |
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Geo Energy Resources Ltd Hurt by the trough in coal prices
3Q25 earnings were below expectations. 9M25 revenue and PATMI were 86%/56% of our FY25e forecast. Net profit declined 55% YoY to US$3.2mn despite a 100% jump in coal sales to 3.4mn tonnes. Earnings declined due to a 19% YoY fall in selling prices. It dragged cash profit per tonne lower by 45% to US$6.5 per tonne. A 0.1-cent interim dividend was declared.
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Coliwoo Holdings ($0.56, down 0.5 cents) delivered strong underlying performance in FY2025. Core PATMI rose 62.6 percent to S$22.9 million. This reflected healthy demand for its co-living operations after stripping out fair value adjustments, IPO expenses, and other one-off items. Gross profit increased by 5.5 percent and gross margins expanded to 71 percent because the prior year included a lower margin retrofitting project that did not recur. The company declared a final dividend of 2.0 cents per share in line with its IPO commitment. Coliwoo’s market cap stands at S$269.2mln and currently trades at 10.6x FY26F PE and 2.2x PB, with a dividend yield of 3.6%. Consensus target price stands at S$0.80, representing 42.9% upside from current share price. We have an Accumulate on Weakness rating on Coliwoo. |
| MAYBANK KIM ENG | MAYBANK KIM ENG |
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Centurion Accommodation REIT (CAREIT SP) Right time, right place
First pure-play purpose-built living REIT; Initiate BUY Centurion Accommodation REIT (CAREIT) is the first and only pure-play purpose-built living accommodation REIT listed on SGX with primary exposure to SG PBWA, and PBSA in the UK and Australia.
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Thai Beverage PCL (THBEV SP) FY25: A soft finish and a soft prospect
Limited catalysts keep us at HOLD; TP cut to SGD0.43 Following ThaiBev’s weaker-than-expected FY25 results, we cut our FY26– 27 earnings forecasts by 4% pa. We expect the operating softness to persist. Our macro team forecasts Thailand GDP growth at a modest 1.7% in 2026, while our consumer team anticipates only a gradual recovery in Vietnam amid intense beer competition. Sabeco’s contribution remains below 15% and offers limited support. Against this backdrop, progress on potential value-unlocking initiatives (BeerCo and F&N spin-offs) appears unlikely in the near term. With few catalysts ahead, we maintain our nonconsensus HOLD rating and lower our TP by 3% to SGD0.43.
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