Excerpts from DBS report

Analyst: Lee Keng LING

Margin expansion offsets slight decline in revenue.

FU YU

Share price: 
26 c

Target: 
35 c

Better-than-expected margin expansion in FY2019 (+4ppts) lifted normalised earnings even though revenue declined slightly (- 1.8%).

Final dividend of 1.0Sct/share, maintaining its high dividend payout ratio. With its healthy cash flow and financial position, FUYU has declared a final dividend of 1.0Sct/share, bringing full year dividend to 1.6Scts/share (vs 1.6Scts/share in FY2018). Its payout ratio is 95.0% of its reported PATMI. FUYU’s full year dividend yield remains attractive at 6.3%.

The consolidation of its Shanghai and Suzhou operations in 2H19 and more favourable product mix continued to lift margins.

We expect the consolidation to benefit full year earnings in FY2020F, with an added lift from margin expansion from the redevelopment of 9 Tuas Drive by the end of 2020.

COVID-19 to impact revenue and earnings in FY20F

The outbreak of the COVID-19 had resulted in an extended Lunar New Year holiday and slowdown in economic activity in China. 

FuYu machine1.20Fu Yu produces parts for products in various industries. Photo: Company
Although the number of new cases in China has peaked, the severity and timeframe of the outbreak remains uncertain as the number of new cases outside of China is increasing.

We have trimmed FY2020F earnings by 3% to factor in an expected decline in sales, partially offset by the expected margins improvement, and also raised FY2021F/22F earnings by 9%/8% on margin expansion.


Where we differ: We are more positive on its gross profit margins from cost efficiency initiatives.

Potential catalysts: Improvement in the COVID-19 situation and manufacturing activity.

Valuation:
Maintain BUY and TP of S$0.35. We have trimmed FY2020F earnings by 3% to factor in the extended shutdown of its factories in China and the broader economic slowdown.

Our current TP of S$0.35 represents an upside of 37% and is 11.8x its 12-m rolling forward PE


Key Risks to Our View: Prolonged COVID-19 outbreak, increasing competition, escalation of the US-China trade war, sharp decline in USDSGD rate.


Full report here

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