GOODPACK -- Hold, target $2.17; NOBLE GROUP -- target under review

Excerpts from analysts' reports

OCBC Investment Research says:  Goodpack -- Promising but fairly priced now

Analyst: Yap Kim Leng
 

David Lam, executive chairman of Goodpack. NextInsight filephotoWe draw investors’ attention back to fundamentals as speculation about possible share offer for Goodpack wanes.

Since our last BUY call in Feb-14, the share price has gained 15%. We keep our fair value estimate of S$2.17 intact and downgrade to a HOLD.

We acknowledge that Goodpack continues to hold compelling value propositions: its global presence and ~20% cost savings over alternatives.

There are also barriers to entry from IBC design patent, stickiness of existing clients, and large capex spending.

We believe Goodpack is among the top choices for any new synthetic rubber (SR) plant, as exemplified by Goodpack being the supplier for Singapore’s new SR plants, including the latest Sumitomo Chemical plant opened in Mar-14. Further catalysts for rerating could be

1) current trial-stage auto parts manufacturers switching over fully to IBCs before 2QFY15 as assumed in our base case, and

2) another upside risk is higher-than-expected demand from rubber industry.

Recent story: Post-results: Buy HANKORE, GOODPACK, say analysts

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OCBC on Noble Group's disposal of 51% stake in Noble Agri Limited Analyst: Carey Wong (left) Noble Group Limited has entered into a share sale agreement with COFCO (Hong Kong) Limited to dispose 51% stake in Noble Agri Limited (NAL).  Upon completion, COFCO will make an initial payment of US$1.5b.  The closing amount will be adjusted after completion so that the final consideration is equal to 1.15x of 51% of the audited book value of NAL Group for FY14.  As of end FY13, the audited book value of NAL Group was ~US$2.8b and net debt was ~US$2.5b. However, the deal is subject to several conditions with a long stop date of 31 Dec 2014 (unless mutually extended or terminated).  According to Noble, the excess over book value is US$47.6m; the estimated gain on disposal is ~US$64.8m.  We will be speaking to management to get more colour. In the meantime, we place our Hold rating and S$1.03 fair value under review.