Investment Plan for 2012 - What's yours?

Hi yeh, u might most prob be right and I will be kicking myself in 2 weeks time. I am trying to remind myself to stick to plan and be emotionless in trading. No fear or greed. I have said before the PB and PE should provide Hugh margin of safety for the next 2-3 quarters. But long term wise, the company has it's constraints and I am not comfortable holding it over multiple cycles. There are other companies I am looking at, I want to have the buffer to invest when the opp comes.  I rather book gains now. There is always money to be earned and loss jn the market. If I stick with plan, at least I will have no regrets

Hi guys, Just check hong fok's financial statements. Current assets less than total liabilities by a lot. Revenue went up by slightly more than 50% but cost of revenue increased by about 300%! EPS is very erratic. out of 12 years, 6 years in the red. But last 3 years ok. Almost every year there positive free cash flow; cash from op greater than capex. I think in the long term, there are more profitable and stable construction counters than hong fok. short term, who knows. my 2 cents worth.

If anyone put down big-time $ on Hong Fok, it's because he / she has never heard of Hiap Hoe Ltd.

Hiap Hoe is better than Hong Fok in some aspects; however, cash from op is mostly negative. that means negative free cash flow. PE is 5

DMG & Partners had a good report out today, Mar26. I can’t resist inserting some of my observations (in brackets in red)

Scoop of the Day: Early last week, we released an update on Hiap Hoe Limited, a developer that has built up a low-cost landbank (My comment: yes, very cheap) in the prime residential districts and is in the midst of developing a 421,000 sqft GFA joint venture  commercial site at Zhongshan Park along Balestier Road. Hiap Hoe has chalked up $400m of progress billings that would be recognised over the next 2-3 years (My comment: earnings visibility and record earnings too!).

Its timely diversification into commercial development will provide the group with a source of recurring income when the hotel-cum commercial  site is completed in 2013/14. We have worked out an RNAV/share of $1.22 (My comment: typically a 30% discount is warranted, so the target price should be 85 cents) for the stock and set a target price of $0.61 (My comment: Already touch 60 cents today! It’s too big a disc to RNAV still).

Interestingly, two days after our report, the local media highlighted a family feud between the founder of Hiap Hoe Limited, Mr Teo Guan Seng, and his  children from various marriages. Founder Teo Guan Seng apparently wants to  wind up the privately-held company, Hiap Hoe Holdings, that holds a 70% stake in publicly-listed Hiap Hoe Limited and Superbowl Limited and distribute its assets to shareholders. This has led the media to speculate (My comment: Idle speculation based on superficial talk) on possible  takeover plays for the two companies and the Hiap Hoe's stock price shot up  to a high of S$0.53 before settling at S$0.51 last Friday.

Without knowing the exact shareholding held by the individual family members of Hiap Hoe Holdings and pending further development, it is premature to speculate on  any takeover plays (My comment: Yes, this analyst has a clear head), in our view. We continue to see value in the stock and maintain our BUY recommendation.

HH at 61.5 cents, perfoming better and faster than I dreamt.
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[abb 25-03-2012]:

If anyone put down big-time $ on Hong Fok, it's because he / she has never heard of Hiap Hoe Ltd.