When 9 out of ten are pessimistic.

  • cheongwee.
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13 years 4 weeks ago #7400 by cheongwee.
Replied by cheongwee. on topic Re:Re:When 9 out of ten are pessimistic.
OMG, did you not read the data that go into the GDP calculation are only partial and subject to revised, go and read it, did not the last time they revised the number also???  Next ,they will come out to state the actual growth was actually 1.5% and stock will drop like stock.
So long housing is in the deep, no way comsumer is OK. MAS and PM Lee told you Singaporean to face cyclical headwind coming quater, they are in better position to know the truth. And they warn you already, if you do not make use of this relief rally to get out or make more money, then you only got yourself to blame.
I trillion for bailout fund come from France or Germany?? if either one do so, they will face downgrade form credit agency, and that will be an end game for euro. The fund required donar country to be AAA!!! if downgrade they can no longer back up the fund.
Crises over???no way, over the dead body of Itally. Greece and then Spain, then eastern Europe altogether.
Use the rally to your best, stop your day dreaming. I hope you don't mind.
OMG, we really got people here who think hundred of billion can disappear without someone somewhere got hit, and all is well!!!! 
[hr]
[garl 27-10-2011]:

omg, contrary to our expectations, the bloody U.S. economy actually grew in 3Q!
And it was at the fastest pace in a year!

What fuelled it? Gains in consumer spending and business investment. The US Joe really can spend even when the outlook is gloomy.
The US GDP rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate. All stocks in the world can only surge from now on -- for at least a week, I think.
 

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13 years 4 weeks ago #7402 by cheongwee.
Replied by cheongwee. on topic Re:When 9 out of ten are pessimistic.
Why nobody ask who will take the hit if bank take 50% haircut???
definitely not nextinsight or cheongwee!! or anybody here.
And before you know, stock is going to downhill again, i think tomolo i will take some profit first.
You know what?? i just learn some big institution on American soil got exposure to euro bank who are taking the hair cut, Isn't it , the same as US taking a haircut??? do you agree.
wait invester got over this exurberence than we will be in deep trouble, hope they continue with their bullishness. till yr end.
good luck
 

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13 years 4 weeks ago #7403 by cheongwee.
Replied by cheongwee. on topic Re:When 9 out of ten are pessimistic.
I am not bear for bear sake or to hurt anyone here, But we got to be prepare and ready for all this downfall upfront. If we imagine thing then we deserve to pay for this dearly.
so i seek your forgiveness for making this cureent bullishness sour, 
make full use of the rally to your advantage irregardless of what come may.
good luck,
you see all the dirty things in 2012!!!

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13 years 4 weeks ago #7405 by yeng
Great challenges can catalyse great responses -- creative and positive ones. We may be seeing that happening in eurozone. I read this morning another piece of unexpected good news which people, including the bears, have not seen in their crystal balls.
Financial Times says > China is very likely to contribute to the eurozone’s bail-out fund but the scope of its involvement will depend on European leaders satisfying some key conditions, two senior advisers to the Chinese government have told the Financial Times.
Any Chinese support would depend on contributions from other countries and Beijing must be given strong guarantees on the safety of its investment, according to Li Daokui, an academic member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, and Yu Yongding, a former member of that committee.

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7505d210-00ba-11e1-85...0.html#axzz1c23dh2PA
 

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13 years 4 weeks ago - 13 years 4 weeks ago #7407 by ethan999
Interesting article in CNBC on Burton Malkiel's speech.
According to him, institutions and investors are heavily under-exposed to China which typically consists of only an average of about 1.7% of their portfolios. 
Yet China's GDP, at about 5.9 trillion USD in 2010 according to the IMF, is at about 9.4% of total global GDP which was at about 63 trillion USD in 2010 and this proportion is growing very steadily every year. 
In fact even if we were to give China a very conservative annual growth estimate of 7% a year, China's share of global GDP will surpass that of Europe's in 5 years and rival that of the US in a decade. 
Malkiel therefore says that 'overall exposure should be at least 9 percent to better match China’s contribution to global GDP'. 
Qoute:
“These are the most attractive multiples I’ve ever seen,” said Malkiel, 79, who pioneered the indexing investment philosophy, at a speech Wednesday for Guggenheim Funds at the New York Stock Exchange.The economist was referring to a slide showing several valuation metrics—from the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratio—for the AlphaShares family of China indexes he created.
Article can be found here:
www.cnbc.com/id/45065376
Last edit: 13 years 4 weeks ago by ethan999. Reason: Typo

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13 years 3 weeks ago #7422 by Mel
The SG market index has shot up from 2,500+ to 2,900+ in just the past 3 weeks.
Time for a correction?
Or will the rally continue all the way to the year-end with intermittent pullbacks?

As the title of this thread puts it most accurately, when 9 out of 10 are pessimistic the market is ready to cheong. Happened on Oct 6 and has since caught the bears by surprise.

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