Best World

U r right! results released already, showing Taiwan market had a 150% jump in 9M revenue.

9M net profit soared 219% to $6,390,000. I figure that full-year profit can hit $10 million.
The PE would then be about 6X, as its market cap now is about 60 million.

Best World is very cheap -- it has cash of $41 million (with just $1.5 m in borrowings).
Thus, ex-cash, the PE is only 2X. Insanely cheap!

infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/BWILQ32015%20Re...cement&FileID=377401

Share price has stabilised at 29-30 cents in the recent past. I have a feeling it's prepping for a breakout to 35 cents. Just look at the quiet accumulation every day.

High volume over last few weeks. May breakout soon.

Yes, the high vol. suggests strongly of accumulation. In the past, the vol. was very low which wsnt surprising as the free float is not great. I reckon the stock will reach 40 cents before 2015 is over. Based on PE, it's still dirt cheap, @ 40 cents, the share price wld be 4.8 ex-cash PE.

Market cap 88m minus 40 m net cash = 48 m sgd.
Assume profit of 10m sgd for fy15, thus PE about 4.8X

By Boon the Best World guru @ Valuebuddies.com:

Hi Coco,

In terms of revenue for the Taiwan market:

4Q was the best quarter in 2014.
4Q is expected to be not only the best quarter in 2015, but also the best quarter ever.
FY2015 is expected to be yet another record-breaking year.

I am not too sure if this has to do with seasonality – but it seemed that the 9th anniversary sales promotion launched in early October (beginning of 4Q) has been very successful.

Also, I believe sales agents are striving for the final push in 4Q to cross the line of sales target in order to get a better promotion next year.

At the Group level:

I would expect 4Q to be the best quarter in 2015 i.e. revenue would surpass that in 3Q2015 (of SGD 26.191 m).

Net Profit Projection for FY2015:
Low end = 85 m (FY2015 Revenue) x 10.5% (FY2015 NPM) = SGD 8.925 m

High end = 6.390 m (9M2015 NPAT) + 30 m (4Q2015 Revenue) x 15.4% (4Q2015 NPM) = SGD 11 m

Both volume and share price have been trending up with the much improved fundamentals - coupled with the fact that the counter has relatively small public floats – hence, most shares are tightly held.

By Boon @ Valuebuddies.com


www.facebook.com/151508721599781...permPage=1

The BWL bi-monthly bulletin has just been released. According to the Country Manager of BWL Taiwan, FY2015 revenue for the Taiwanese market is estimated to come in at around TWD 1.2 billion (or about SGD 51.724 million; using SGD = 23.2 TWD) => another record breaking year !

=> this implies a 4Q2015 revenue of around SGD 22.890 million for Taiwan - which would be the best quarterly revenue of all time ~ another new record !

Taiwan Revenue Projection : (SGD million)
1Q2014 = 2.418
2Q2014 = 4.157
3Q2014 = 4.940 (9M2014= 11.515)
4Q2014 = 11.196 (FY2014 = 22.711)
1Q2015 = 4.465
2Q2015 = 10.244
3Q2015 = 14.125 (9M2015 =28.834)
4Q2015 = 22.890 (FY2015 =51.724) = projection

4Q2015 Group Revenue Projection (SGD million)
Singapore = 1.767 (Assume same as 3Q2015)
China = 4.805 (Assume same as 3Q2015)
Taiwan = 22.890
Philippines= 0.529 (Assume same as 3Q2015)
Others = 4.965 (Assume same as 3Q2015)
Total =34.956


FY 2015 Group Revenue Projection: (SGD Million)
1Q2014 = 12.802
2Q2014 = 18.278
3Q2014 = 19.229 (9M2014 =50.308)
4Q2014 = 24.957 (FY2014 = 75.265)
1Q2015 = 13.507
2Q2015 = 21.029
3Q2015 = 26.191 (9M2015 = 60.727)
4Q2015 = 34.956 (FY2015 = 95.683)

Note: highest ever quarterly group revenue of SGD 33.489 m was achieved in 4Q2007 - there is a chance that 4Q2015 may beat it. Will see.................
Highest ever yearly group revenue of SGD 102.180 m was achieved in FY2007 - a harder target for FY2015 to beat.

Net profit projection (SGD million)

Assuming FY2015 NPM of 10.5%:
ð NPAT = 95.683 x 10.5% = SGD 10.0 million

Assuming 4Q2015 NPM of 15.4%
ð NPAT = 6.390 m (9M2015 NPAT) + 34.956 m (4Q2015 Revenue) x 15.4% (4Q2015 NPM) = SGD 11.8 m

Highest ever yearly NPAT of SGD13.504 m was achieved in FY2007 as well - which again is hard for FY2015 to beat - may be FY2016 could beat it - ha-ha! Will see !

That said, I would be equally pleased if NPAT for FY2015 were to come in at just around SGD 9 million.

As always, an analysis is only as good as its underlying assumptions