I said from the past 12 years, NOL usually will fall lower from MID-NOV to MID-DEC.
For the past 12 years, From 2002 till last year NOL usually will fall from Mid-Nov to mid-Dec, then from 3rd week of Dec then have a short rebound till early Jan, hence from now till mid-Dec NOL usually keep falling.
Hence why buy NOL now why one can buy at cheaper prices in mid-Dec??
low point for nol was sgd0.19 during one of the climatic selling, it was difficult to forget that day. even dbs was brought to its knees when it traded at sgd3.60
it hover around sgd0.60 for few years after recovery from the selloff.
The current deep discount of Neptune Orient Lines' share price to its book value is not warranted as investors have overreacted to the shipping group's weak results and ignored the potential sale of its logistics business, says UOB Kay Hian.
The stock has fallen 34% so far this year and trades below its latest net asset value of 73 US cents (91.3 Singapore cents) a share. This month alone, it has retreated 11.4%, ending at a multi-year low of 74 cents yesterday. Its current valuation of 0.74 times projected 2015 book value is "very cheap" compared to its historical range of 0.9 to one times and an average of 0.8 times for its peers, according to UOB Kay Hian, which has a "buy" call and $1.01 price target on NOL.
"The current valuation discount is not justified," said the broking house. "If the market downgrades NOLs valuation due to the potential sale of the logistics business, the market should also include the potential disposal gain in 2015s book value." Assuming the logistics business is sold for US$720 million, which is lower than market expectations of US$1 billion, NOL's book value per share in 2015 would rise by 17 US cents to 96 US cents, said UOB Kay Hian. At that value, the stock trades at "only" 0.6 times price-to-book, it said. "We expect the price downside is very limited for NOL." The shipping line, which said in August that it had plans to sell or list its logistics business, reported last month a net loss of US$23 million for 3Q2014, reversing earnings of US$20 million a year earlier, owing to lower freight rates and container volumes.
Re: "Assuming the logistics business is sold for US$720 million, which is lower than market expectations of US$1 billion, NOL's book value per share in 2015 would rise by 17 US cents to 96 US cents, said UOB Kay Hian. At that value, the stock trades at "only" 0.6 times price-to-book, it said."
-- Holy smoke, @ 75.5 cents now, it's cheap then. It used to trade about $2.50 a few years ago -- ard 2010. Do you know when the sale of the logistics div might take place?