Recssion in Q4 a done deal

This ECRI was calling a global slowdown in early May, and we have it, i was sceptical at first. But look how accurate they were!!!
Now they are saying the US is tipping into recession and i know it is not generally acceptable here.
But the fact is, it is going to be urgly for stock.
If you are down some 30% since Aug, and if you still want to hold out, then you be sorry.
If you have experience in 2007 and 2008 you know what i means
Your portfolio got more to go down, at least by another 50% to 70%.
I do hope there is a rally soon, for us to sell to strength.
I know you guy hate to hear this, but i still have to put it here,so it may help some.
Dont blame me, I am only a Messenger, ECRI call the recession, not me.
I just put up here to let you know, hope you all appreciate.
 
www.businesscycle.com/#
 

Receesion this time will be longer and more serious. As this is a more of a double dip, so it is going to be more pessimistic.
There are just so many shock to the world economy in such a short period of time, the downgrade of US credit, PIGS, ME, Japan quake, etc, etc.
How can we escape from going into recession, I think when all hell are over, we would have to name it depression. Hope not. But i fear the worse.
What can we do?i suggest sell to strength, you lose say worse case like my friend did now down some 35 to 40%
you sell and side line and wait it out till mkt bottom, then buy back cheap. it is like Mar 09 all over again,this way, you will see your money back faster and even make a good profit as you buy cheap and more lots at the mkt bottom
or you stay and wait till recession all over, i dont suggest this, is because the is recession is going to be very long,and you go down with it and come back up, this is not a good strategy, you may not even see your money back.
hope there is a rally before Q4 GDP report is out. Use this rall to get out, dont hope.
it is hopless now.
I wish all well, good luck,
i know you dont like this, but i hope i help some over here.
 

As a more optimistic person, I would say a recession or a sharp fall in the market in 4Q is not a for-sure event. In times of crisis, nations have found deep within themselves the creativity and the resilience necessary to overcome. Already, we are seeing European nations taking steps to do what is necessary. I just hope they don't fail. There is already an economic slowdown but it is already in the stock prices. Things are not as bad as the market plunges suggest. In China, by the way, manufacturing is still expanding -- advanced for the second month in September, driven by an increase in new export orders.

Woke up to Bloomberg's good news out of the US:
1. Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in September, propelled by gains in exports and production.
The Institute for Supply Management ’s factory index climbed to 51.6 last month from 50.6 in August, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. A level of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
2.  Another report today showed construction spending in the U.S. unexpectedly climbed in August, led by the biggest jump in state and local government outlays in more than two years.
The 1.4 percent gain reversed the revised 1.4 percent drop in July, Commerce Department figures showed.

My friend i told you about who was down 40% told me that was 1/3 of his available "bullet", so in fact he is hoping for big crash to cash in with the other 2/3
I told him, if big crash come, wait a whiole first, till mkt really bottom, that is the way to profit.
anybody here got a better idea how he should use his ohter 2/3.???
i hope he can, i am out with some losses.
 
[hr]
[cheongwee 30-09-2011]:

Receesion this time will be longer and more serious. As this is a more of a double dip, so it is going to be more pessimistic.
There are just so many shock to the world economy in such a short period of time, the downgrade of US credit, PIGS, ME, Japan quake, etc, etc.
How can we escape from going into recession, I think when all hell are over, we would have to name it depression. Hope not. But i fear the worse.
What can we do?i suggest sell to strength, you lose say worse case like my friend did now down some 35 to 40%
you sell and side line and wait it out till mkt bottom, then buy back cheap. it is like Mar 09 all over again,this way, you will see your money back faster and even make a good profit as you buy cheap and more lots at the mkt bottom
or you stay and wait till recession all over, i dont suggest this, is because the is recession is going to be very long,and you go down with it and come back up, this is not a good strategy, you may not even see your money back.
hope there is a rally before Q4 GDP report is out. Use this rall to get out, dont hope.
it is hopless now.
I wish all well, good luck,
i know you dont like this, but i hope i help some over here.
 

At first , i thuought that was all his investment, no bad , only 1/3, so he is still wise in a way that he did not invest all at one go.
Yes, data are generally good, but what can good data do to a Euro debt crises ???
if euro implore, US is going down also.
so that explian the selling.
But mkt down tremendously is due to shortist, and fund redemption, and some panic selling.
so those who hold good stock like Qingmei or foreland which i cut lose may ride thro the rough patch, i dont think a recession will drown these 2 good stock,
so u shouid just close your eye, otherwise u may end up panicly sell, and regret later.
or perphap u are very sure they can get even cheaper later, like i do, then sewll first, buy back later....disclaimer..follow me at your risk.