Don’t believe management’s projections, but rather rely on evidence of actual accomplishments
Spend time understanding the quality of the business rather than getting lost in the financials. Some businesses are tougher than others and they are likely to remain so beyond the next quarter.
Don’t get overconfident because you know a lot of details about the business – it’s the few big things that matter
Spend time thinking about what can go wrong and what that will mean for the business before it happens, not just about how much money you might make if things go right