MIIF - a good target?

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21 Feb 2015 13:57 - 21 Feb 2015 14:00 #21757 by cheongsl
Replied by cheongsl on topic MIIF - a good target?
Revenue EBIDTA Distributed
2014 588.5m RMB 463.4m RMB 12.3m S$
2013 517.5m RMB 405.5m RMB 12.1m S$
2012 502.5m RMB 397.6m RMB 17.4m S$

How much is expected in China tax rate? 25%
That means profit after tax is expected
2014 347.55m RMB ==> exchange rate 4.68 ==> 74.26m S$
2013 304.125m RMB ==> exchange rate 4.75 ==> 64.02m S$
2012 298.2m RMB ==> exchange rate 5 ==> 59.64m S$

MIIF owning 81% of HNE thus have the full say of the distribution for HNE, but for share holder there is no access to HNE information. But from the estimation you can see that the distribution is not increasing much but the profit after tax(based on estimation) generated is actual increasing a lot.
Last edit: 21 Feb 2015 14:00 by cheongsl. Reason: re aligning the text

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21 Feb 2015 14:45 #21758 by Bobby64
Replied by Bobby64 on topic MIIF - a good target?
I suggest you read the latest financial statements before stating that I did not do my due dilligence. The value of HNE has been written down due to the lease expiry as you mentioned as well as necessary capex to maintain the bridge plus taking into account the expected fall in toll collection(which may or may not be correct).

Of course a full sale would be done. Why would i suggest otherwise? That would not lead to a winding up of the fund which is the end goal.

I do however agree that the asset is worth more being kept operational than sale.

And since you are on the opposite side. Why not state your target price since you are bullish and have done some due dilligence.

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21 Feb 2015 17:04 #21760 by GEO
Replied by GEO on topic MIIF - a good target?
Doesnt sound a good buy since the company likely to wind up.

Did the company paid off its debts after the divestments or the assets divested doesnt carrying any debts? If the earlier divestment proceeds have all gone to shareholder dividend and the debts still not pare down then quite dangerous.

So what the debts like? And how much is the last asset worth?

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22 Feb 2015 00:00 #21761 by cheongsl
Replied by cheongsl on topic MIIF - a good target?
Hi Bobby,
Seems like you still don't get it, the 120million valuation is only on the 81% ownership, but you assume that it is 100% = 120million.
You mention you take 81.8% from the 120millions sales that means you assume that it will only sell of 81.8% of the 81% ownership.
If the valuation is 100% of ownership and not MIIF ownership %, that means that the 47.5% is ownership of TBC which has a valuation of 495.4m will only be able to sell for 235.3m, similar to other divestment. so if you do the due diligence you will not be able to make such a mistake.

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22 Feb 2015 00:03 #21762 by cheongsl
Replied by cheongsl on topic MIIF - a good target?
Hi Geo,

Seems like you did not do any homework, as your question are all available in their financial report.

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22 Feb 2015 04:04 - 22 Feb 2015 04:09 #21763 by GEO
Replied by GEO on topic MIIF - a good target?
Hi cheongsl,

Seems like you are good with the financial report and did your homework. I saw operating business net debt of $359mil, miiif net (cash) debt of ~$4mil cash, miif business equity of $120mil, ev of $475mil.

Can you enlightened what the difference between the operating business debt and miif net(cash) debt and trade and other payables under liabilities? Miif net (cash) debt is not equal to cash minus trade and other payables. Trade and other payables is the only item under liabilities.

I presume miif business equity is the valuation of hua nan expressway.

So what is miif net debt?
Last edit: 22 Feb 2015 04:09 by GEO.

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