Another US Financial Shakings In 2015/16?

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04 Apr 2016 22:39 #22956 by observer2
SHEMITAH & SUPER SHEMITAH

Introduction

The Shemitah is the name for every 7th year of the Hebrew calendar. It is the year that was traditionally observed as the regular annual period of debt forgiveness in the Hebrew communities of olden days. Not only were debts canceled, the farms fields lay fallow for the same year while the community took special time to renew and rejuvenate both physically and spiritually. First and foremost, however, it is the nullification of debts that distinguishes the Shemitah year.

The last Shemitah year began on September 25 of 2014 and ended on September 13th of 2015. Because it is the 7th Shemitah in the current cycle (7 x 7 Shemitahs = 49 years) it is followed by the celebration of the Shemitah Jubilee. The current Shemitah Jubilee is the 70th Jubilee since they first began, and therefore has the distinction of being a Super Shemitah. The celebration of the Biblical Shemitah Jubilee represents an extremely significant period when the energies of both the Shemitah and the Jubilee mutually intensify each other.

Going back over the past 15 years since the beginning of the new millennium, the previous Shemitah years have ended in September with exceedingly earth-shaking events. For example the stock market crash of September and October of 2008, which marked the beginning of the Great Recession, occurred at the end of the last Shemitah year. This was preceded by the U.S. real estate market collapse that began in earnest with the beginning of the Shemitah on September 13, 2007.

Likewise, the false flag terror attacks of 9/11 and subsequent stock market crash on September 17th both occurred at the end of the Shemitah year of 2001. On September 10 of the same year the US Department of Defense admitted to $2.3 trillion missing. DOD Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stated that “According to some estimates, we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions.” The Dot-com bubble collapse also took place at the start of that Shemitah year which began on September 30th of 2000.

There are many other striking and unmistakable correlations between the Shemitah year and major events within the Global Economic & Financial System (GE&FS) over many decades of the last century.

Following the publication of Jonathan Cahn’s book – “The Harbinger”,.many Americans had expected “The Shemitah” on Sunday, September 13, 2015 to usher in some cataclysmic event in America — possibly an economic crash, inclement weather, war or terrorist attacks”? However, the events after September 13 had not turned out to be as dire as Cahn had predicted. Has Cahn been wrong in his prediction? Not entirely.

Cahn later elaborated that the year of the Shemitah is marked by economic cessation and financial nullification. But when you reached the seventh Shemitah – basically everything that the Shemitah is – is extended into the following year – which is even more intense – the Jubilee. That being the case, it is possible that the prophetic, financial, economic and geopolitical effect of the Shemitah, its impact on the “secular” realm as detailed in his book, could likewise be extended into the following year. What happened from August to September 2015 especially in the Shemitah’s key month of Elul, absolutely comprised the classic pattern , dynamic, and manifestation of the Shemitah cycle.

JEFF BERWICK: SUPER SHEMITAH: Elite's Jubilee Year Plan to Crash World Economy by October 2016 [HD]

Jeff Berwick, Financial Analyst, strongly believe that the Super Shemitah year of 2016 would bring massive calamities including another US financial crisis – see his predictions in the link below –


While no one can be certain of the future and with the current world economies and financial markets not being in the best of health, it would certainly be interesting to watch how events unfold over the next 6 months.

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05 Jul 2016 22:43 - 05 Jul 2016 23:10 #23113 by observer2
The stock market has posted a rousing recovery in recent days causing many to conclude that the market has already shrugged off the “Brexit” event. While U.S. stocks might even go so far as to achieve new all-time highs along the way in the coming weeks, the risks facing the markets are also likely to be elevated going forward.

Many investors have pointed to the U.S. stock market as a leading indicator of what we can expect from the economy and financial system going forward. While this may have been the case at one time, gross distortions resulting from endlessly aggressive monetary stimulus efforts could well have transformed the U.S. stock market from a predictive indicator to an emotionally reactive perpetual optimist.

The European banks were noted to have come under heavy pressure in the wake of the Brexit vote. Prices of many banks and bond yields had plunged to its lowest level but never made recovery like the global stock markets. Gold prices soared but failed to retreat much from its recent high level. Could this be an ominous sign that something is not quite right with the world economy and financial system?

Deutsche Bank has now come into the spotlight as a potential source of danger to triggering the next global financial crisis.

Below is a Reuters’ report of 30 June 2016 –
“Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) links to the world's largest lenders make it a bigger potential risk to the wider financial system than any other global bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.
The IMF compared possible threats to financial stability stemming from globally systemically important banks, known as "G-SIBs", in a review of Germany's banking and insurance sector.
"Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC (HSBA.L) and Credit Suisse (CSGN.S)," the fund said.
Global regulators have tried to make such banks more robust following the financial crisis to limit the impact of a bank collapse such as the implosion of U.S. firm Lehman Brothers.
"The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures," the IMF said, adding it was also important to quickly put in place measures for winding down troubled banks.
Germany's largest lender declined to comment on the report.
Its shares fell by nearly 5 percent earlier on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was one of only two lenders to have failed an annual test of financial resilience in hypothetical stress scenarios. “

An interesting write-up on Deutsche Bank can be found in the link below –
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article55774.html - Deutsche Bank To Trigger The Next Financial Crisis!
Last edit: 05 Jul 2016 23:10 by observer2.

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07 Jul 2016 10:54 #23116 by observer2
The health of the German Deutsche Bank could be a cause of serious concern to the financial market over the next 12 months judging from the following reports –

1. Harry Dent – “Markets should be much more worried about the coming default in Italy. They should be much more worried about the largest banks in the world failing… and they will fail. Yet they seem more concerned about political factors like Brexit, or when Janet Yellen will raise the fed funds rate 0.25%. Investors are going to get their asses handed to them.”
[Source: wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/07/europe-bigger-problem-brexit/ - Europe has a Bigger Problem than Brexit]

2. BBC News – “Deutsche Bank shares hit a new record low today. It's value has halved since the beginning of the year.
So is it now the most dangerous bank in the world?
According to the International Monetary Fund - yes.
Last week, the IMF said that, of the banks big enough to bring the financial system crashing down, Deutsche Bank was the riskiest. Not only that, Deutsche Bank's US unit was one of only two of 33 big banks to fail tests of financial strength set by the US central bank earlier this year.
It's not hard to get scared when you look at a few numbers. Bear with me.
In simple terms any bank is worth the difference between what it's owed and what it owes. In the case of Deutsche Bank that means the difference between assets of 1.64 trillion euros (yes, trillion) and liabilities of 1.58 trillion euros. Its net value is 60 billion euros.
Sounds like a lot. BUT the value of what its owed doesn't need to move by much to wipe out its value completely.
'Financial apocalypse'
The IMF and the US central bank aren't the only ones who think Deutsche Bank is risky. The share price has fallen early 70% in the last year. In fact, you can buy the whole bank for 20bn euros - a third of what it's worth on paper. Other banks trade at a discount to their net worth but Deutsche Bank is by far the biggest.
For that reason, many people fear Deutsche Bank could be the first horseman of a new financial apocalypse.”
[Source: www.bbc.com/news/business-36723034 - Deutsche Bank: World Most Dangerous Bank?]

3. LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) – “Deutsche Bank is looking to sell at least $1 billion of shipping loans to lighten its exposure to the sector whose lenders face closer scrutiny from the European Central Bank, sources told Reuters.”
[Reference: www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/ex...he-bank/2935326.html ]

4. ROME (Reuters) – “The difficulties facing Italian banks over their bad loans are miniscule by comparison with the problems some European banks face over their derivative exposure, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said on Wednesday.
Renzi's comments appeared to be directed at Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), which has outstanding derivative positions running into trillions of euros, and marked an escalation in his war of words aimed at securing an EU deal over Italy's troubled lenders.”
[Source: sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/italys-bad-loa...-tiny-164937099.html - Italy's bad loan woes tiny compared to derivatives problems elsewhere – Renzi]

5. Jeff Gundlach – “Banks are dying and policymakers don;t know what to do,” Gundlach said. “Watch Deutsche Bank shares go to single digits and people will start to panic ... you’ll see someone say, ‘someone is going to have to do something’.”
[Source: www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-06/gundla...ple-will-start-panic ]

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09 Aug 2016 17:10 #23176 by observer2
An informative article on the “Transformation and Decline of Deutsche Bank” can be found in the link below –
Source: www.dw.com/en/the-transformation-and-dec...sche-bank/a-19452126

The WHAT AND WHY Of Derivatives
"Megabanks trade risk via derivatives contracts to another firm while keeping the underlying asset on their books. This way they can bypass capital requirements and take on more debt. This, in turn, allows them to make more trades, but it also means that if a sudden downturn surfaces in the markets, the firm which borrowed way beyond their means may quickly go bankrupt. Lehman Brothers experienced this after they’d borrowed 30 times more money than they had in reserve. In that case, a relatively small loss of a mere 3% meant that Lehman no longer had reserves (i.e. capital), and they therefore collapsed…i.e. totally wiped out. The leverage that derivatives allow is incomprehensible. They are betting 30 TIMES MORE MONEY THAN THEY HAVE. This is financially insane." (Source: www.huffingtonpost.ca/nick-fillmore/bank...tives_b_4408856.html )

It is a well known fact that Deutsche Bank has a huge risky derivatives position of well over 50 trillion dollars. According to the writer of this interesting article, “Derivatives Crisis of Banks Worldwide” in the link below,
www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/deriva...ks%E2%80%A6worldwide ,
the US banks also have a total of 247 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives that Warren Buffet described as the financial “weapon of mass destruction”. The current global economic slowdown which has been compounded by the collapse of the oil market and Brexit has heightened the risk of one of the highly leveraged banks following the path of Lehman Brothers. Could this be the next Black Swan descending on the financial markets?

[A black swan is defined by INVESTOPEDIA as an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict; the term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer and former Wall Street trader. Black swan events are typically random and are unexpected.]

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28 Sep 2016 15:01 #23267 by observer2
While many investors are looking towards the forthcoming US Presidential election and the likely end-of-the-year Fed interest rate hike as potential Black Swans descending on the global financial markets, most are oblivious of the serious deteriorating financial health of one of Europe’s largest bank heading into a crisis of survival with capability of rocking the global financial system if not properly resolved.

Below is an extract of a report of 26 September 2016 from Marketwatch –

“How Deutsche Bank woes are stressing out the U.S. stock market

Deutsche Bank’s annus horribilis is getting uglier.

Germany’s most prominent bank contributed to a selloff of global equity benchmarks, including the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.64% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.74% Monday, as investors fretted about a possible spillover from intensifying concerns that Deutsche Bank may need to raise fresh capital to cover a potential settlement.

The market reaction shows that investors remain sensitive to the “slightest sniff of a crisis in confidence,” said Kevin Kelly, chief investment officer at Recon Capital and manager of the firm’s DAX Germany ETF DAX, -0.29% in a phone interview.

Shares of Deutsche Bank DB, +0.59% DBK, +1.27% saw losses accelerate after a news report Friday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan that she wouldn’t offer political assistance to the giant lender as it faces the prospect of a $14 billion fine from the U.S. Justice Department. Deutsche Bank has pushed back against the Justice Department’s proposal that it pay up to $14 billion to settle civil claims related to the bank’s sale of complex structured mortgage bonds during the height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Deutsche Bank has said it has no intention of shelling out that much to settle the claims.
Citing unnamed government officials, Germany’s Focus magazine said Merkel wasn’t willing to offer help to Deutsche Bank because she was heading into an election year.

Although representatives for Merkel and Deutsche Bank denied the reports, the chatter has highlighted the fact that one of the world’s largest banks is being buffeted by a number of headwinds that could weigh on the European and U.S. economies, not least of all are fears about its ability to withstand problems. The bank has a little over $6 billion set aside for possible litigation expenses, according to recent regulatory filings as of June 30.

Wall Street has taken notice, as this tweet from prominent blogger and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, Joshua Brown, shows:
Frankfurt-traded shares of Deutsche Bank fell to their lowest level in decades on Monday, hitting €10.55, pushing its year-to-date loses to more than 50%.

Why is the market so worked about a German bank? For one, it is size. Deutsche Bank is the largest German lender and the fourth largest European bank by assets with $1.9 trillion as of 2015, behind Crédit Agricole, BNP Paribas and HSBC Holdings. ......

For more details, see: Marketwatch - www.marketwatch.com/story/how-deutsche-b...ck-market-2016-09-26

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