NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES (NOL) Leading the shipping stocks surge

Better buy early for riding BDI recovery


Even though NOL not closely link to BDI.. already surging

BDI surged 4% yesterday to 1215, but still a fraction of historical high of nearly 11500 in May 2008 (before the global financial crisis).

The recovery is painfully slow...sigh.

I agree NOL is not that correlated to BDI. Look out instead for Chinese PMI (purchasing managers index), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), cost of bunker fuel, etc.

$1.11 now. Not vested.

I dont believe a CEO with almost zero experience( formerly an army general) in shipping is able to steer a large company in a highly competitive and tough industry.

I shrudder to see my previous holding in SMRT.

Shipping companies need to ride through the volatility of shipping circles which are rather feast and famine type in nature.

NOL records are seriously forgettable. I know shipping is in the doldrums, but if you look at other overseas carriers, most big companies are still making profits in the last 5 years. I am not talking about giants like Maersk or the likes, but surprising, when I am researching on YZJ customers, rickemers, seaspan, and even golden ocean are making good profits.

Says a lot about NOL management when they need to sell their "home" and lease it back to raise cash...

Discussing about the business here, I have no idea if the price will rise or fall in the short term, I am terribly bad at trading, you might make good money trading on the momentum of the BDI and better than expected trade figures from China

and WOW, Baltic Dry Index rises , to 1,478 points , up 126 Monday, 09 September 2013

by kit whye:

NOL 31 Oct 2013: From NOL's Q3 report, the company has turnaround. Q3 net profit of US$23 million include a US$31.8 million of FX gain, but nevertheless, the performance come with tough cost control at all levels.


YTD nine months reflect a profit of US$64 million, but include US$205 million gain on sale of NOL Building.

Expected full year EPS should be within the range of US$0.035 to US$0.04 a share.

However, its balance sheet need to strengthen in the coming years. As at Sep 2013, total debt came up to US$4.5 billion, total equity at US$2.2 billion, and cash balance at US$856 million.

That will give NOL a net gearing of 165%, and NOL must take step to reduce that high gearing.

US$446 million of debts need to be repaid within a year.

Beside cash calls, NOL may have to divest assets and/or businesses to pare down its debt.

Its current gearing of 2.1 times may improve over time, but certainly will not be so soon.