The recent surge in the BDI has largely been driven by the spike in Capesize vessel spot rates (mainly due to increased China iron ore and coal shipments).
We expect freight rates to remain strong going into the peak season in 4Q13, but will likely pull back at year-end/early next year during the holiday season and as new vessels are delivered and iron ore inventory restocking moderates.
We recommend investors look to lock in some profit on the more expensive stocks as share prices could pull back after the peak season.
Longer term, we still have a positive contrarian view and expect average freight rates in 2014 to surpass 2013 levels, driving earnings recovery.
We believe this year marks the cycle’s bottom and the sector’s recovery will be earlier than expected in 2014 as the vessel order book is overstated; scrapping/financing challenges mitigate oversupply.
Positive takeaways from recent China trip. Sino Grandness invited us for a 3-day trip to China. We came away positive after our visit to an F&B trade fair in Wuhan and a plant in Danyang. In our view, Sino Grandness's
domestic business is making impressive progress on all fronts, including new product launches, expansion of its distribution network and new capacity installation.
The Garden Fresh IPO is also on track, according to
management. We continue to like Sino Grandness for its strong growth outlook. We believe the stock is still undervalued at 5.1x FY13 PER and much more value is waiting to be unlocked via the Garden Fresh IPO.
Maintain BUY. Our TP is adjusted to SGD0.94 due to its recent share split.
Sino Grandness CEO Jack Huang checking out his placard holders at the Hubei trade fair.
ST Engineering has announced that its electronics arm, ST Electronics has secured SGD416m of contracts for rail electronics, satellite communications and communications projects in 3Q2013.
Out of this, about SGD238m was for communications and electronics systems, advance IT systems and rail electronics solutions, while SGD178m was for satcoms products and broadband communications solutions.
STE’s orderbook stood at SGD12.7bn as of end Jun 2013, out of which about SGD2.8bn is expected to be delivered in 2H2013. We estimate the new contracts lifted net order book to SGD13.1bn, equivalent to 2x annual revenue.
We have a BUY on ST Engineering with a DCF derived TP of SGD4.70.
We like STE for its solid fundamentals: 31% ROE, 10- EPS CAGR of 5%, and 4.2% yield. STE currently trades at 20.7x FY13 P/E, below its historical peak of 24.5x.
Super Group (SUPER SP, S10) –
A buying opportunity; your one-stop Asia consumer proxy
(BUY/Target: S$5.60)
The group launched its 3-in-1 coffee in China in August and sales are positive. Management believes China is on track to account for 8-10% of the group’s total branded consumer segment sales in 2-3 years’ time. We believe there could be potential upside to margins should raw material costs trend down further from 2012. In the
absence of any major M&A or a significant rise in capacity, we forecast the group’s free cash flow at more than S$100m p.a. from 2014 onwards. Looking ahead, we think average selling prices could trend up in the medium term on the introduction of premium products.
Following last week’s CNY221.8m international train and China metro contract wins, Midas Holdings (Midas) announced last evening that it has secured contracts to supply aluminium alloy extrusion profiles and certain fabricated parts for the manufacture of high-speed trains in China.
These contracts are worth CNY167.5m in total, with delivery expected from 2013 to 2014. Total YTD order wins for Midas has now hit ~CNY812.6m (FY12: CNY324.9m).
We view Midas’ latest high-speed train contract success as a strong re-rating catalyst for its share price given that its last high-speed contract win came in Feb 2011. We believe this may also set the momentum for further such contract wins to come, given China’s ambition to develop its rail transport sector. Maintain BUY and S$0.65 fair value estimate on Midas, based on 1.3x blended FY13/14F P/B.
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