Midas: Metro contracts are rolling, matter of time before high-speed catch up
Catalysts: As part of its continued efforts to develop its infrastructure network, we believe China should resume its high speed passenger railway programme after an 18 month suspension. When the flow of contracts resumes, Midas is well positioned to benefit as the company has a 60% market share of aluminum profiles for train carriages.
On the valuation front, Midas has been trading at depressed P/BV of about 0.7x in the last 2 years.
Risk: Without contracts from the high-speed passenger railway segment, which account for over half of its railway related orders (>70% of overall earnings), Midasâ profitability will remain depressed.
While QE3 is boosting sentiment, it wonât result in a sustained bull market when macro fundamentals are still trending down and it isnât a major game changer, CIMB says in a note.
âCurrent valuations (Asean P/BV now at 1.5x-3.2x) are much higher than QE1, macro fundamentals are still not looking up and there are the nagging European debt concerns in the background. Value hunting remains a key strategy.â
It screens its coverage for Asean stocks with good fundamentals, an ROE uptrend and reasonable P/BV. âIn Singapore, we see value across a wide spectrum.â
It says the offshore segmentâs value offerings focus on smaller-mid cap plays such as Swiber, ASL Marine, Mermaid, Ezionand Ezra.
Among commodity plays, it sees value in the supply chain managers/planter, Noble, Olam and Wilmar.
Among property stocks, it tips OUE, Ho Bee,Singapore Land and CapitaLand, with other value picks including Tat Hong, Biosensors, Broadway, DBS, United Engineers, Yongnam, and Midas.
Good pick by CIMB.
Midas has a long way to go from 42 cents -- target S$1.00 -- based on a resurgence in high-speed rail contracts that should be coming over the next few quarters.