Can China and QE save us and solve the problem?

  • cheongwee
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12 years 3 months ago #10358 by cheongwee
Have you ask yourself this question? If stimulus, QE and twisitng can work, why do we need further easing and QE?
If it can work, we should be out of problem now, it is some 4 yrs, since the subprime, which give rise to all these current problem.
Ben can no longer come out a QE3, they face a downgrade by credit agency. And the twist is running out of bullet soon. They cannot go on twisting.
Forget abt China to save us, they cannot even save themselves, save for their hugh reserve, but with easing they can only go this far. Only US and Europe can save us and China.
If the rest of the world is growing , then rebalancing and recover work will see the euro out of their problem. But the fact, is the whole world are in slow growth and recession.
Argentina, Russia, and Iceland are lucky is that when they are in trouble, the rest of the world are still doing alright, so they ride on them.
But the PIGS are dead for sure, Can China save us? China need to sell, they are not consumer based, so is India, Even if their people want to take over the US, they need to double their comsumption overnight, that is not possible.
In the end, it is the true law of supply and demand that will solve the problem. The more the Qe, the longer will be the recession. Let the mkt force takeover,
The best action is no action, let those who deserve to bankrupt go under. The longer you give them money, the deeper will be the problem,. Bite the bullet, and go thro a 2 to 3 yrs of suffering, then the world will return to normal.
To date , nothing is solve in europe, only plain strong word and no solid action. But there is this rally, why?
Because u said mkt expect, easing, QE and China easing, yes, we are half right, the real reason is that safe haven money are finding their way back into risk asset, because they realise, the PIGS are not going to go under for another 3Q., thus the rally. look the 20 yr TLT is losing steam.proivng that safe haven money is moving out inot stock.
So what shd we do? take advantage of this rally to the max, buy on dip, if you are still skeptical, and not doing anything, by end Q4, you will be in RECESSION and DEPRESSION, not Europe.
I think the next rslly will be light yr away like Curiosity on Mars.
Alaways have a stop for all vestment be it long or short. Never say i m a value so i must ride up and down with it. It is stupidity, not value investing. Value means buy low and sell high, not stay with it till kingdom come, like some say i will only sell at sti 3600.
Dont panic when mkt crash, view it as a buying opportunity,take the time when it crash to identity the counter you like to buy and at what price you want to buy. and wait patiently. Don't put all your $ in a few counter, use position sizing.
And never average down, we do not know why the px is down, it is going down for a reason, but position sizing will counter this danger here.
good luck, hope i share, and may all be well. and happy by end Q4.
only 2 thing can stop this rally.
1) Syria, it involve Iran, and they may block oil shipping route causes mkt upheavel.
2) Sept 12 , german court to decide on the fate of ESM. but i think this one will be politicaly handle.
 
May all be well
 
 
 

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