buysellhold july.23




Improved GMV growth momentum in 4Q23F


■ We believe Shopee’s reinvestment drive bore fruit in 4Q23F with improved GMV growth momentum (+28% yoy) while its rate of cash burn eased.

■ We see early signs of e-commerce competition in ASEAN normalising but will continue to follow developments post the TikTok Shop-Tokopedia merger.

■ Reiterate Hold in view of Shopee’s FY24F earnings risks given the uncertainties in the Indonesia e-commerce space.



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Grab Holdings

4Q23F: Deliveries GMV growth soft


■ We expect Grab’s 4Q23F revenue and adj. EBITDA to be in line; but GMV growth could come in softer vs. consensus on weaker Deliveries growth.

■ Key growth focus on FY24F include deepening market penetration via 1) affordable offerings, 2) advertising services, and 3) fintech services.

■ Grab said it remains committed to sustainable profit growth, riding on the current healthy competitive landscape in ASEAN. Reiterate Add. 



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CapitaLand Integrated Commercial

Resilient portfolio performance


■ 2H/FY23 DPU of 5.45/10.75 Scts made up 50%/99% of our FY23F forecast.

■ CICT saw qoq improvements in occupancy amid positive rental reversions.

■ Maintain Add rating with a slightly higher TP of S$2.18. 



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BRC Asia Ltd

Operationally healthy


■ BRC’s 1QFY9/24 net profit grew 47% yoy to S$17m (+47% yoy) on a low base, given negative impact from Heightened Safety Alert period last year.

■ BRC sees a healthy outlook for the local reinforced steel industry, on the back of the BCA’s strong construction demand forecasts.

■ Reiterate Add and TP of S$2.30, still based on 1.4x CY24F P/BV. CY24F yield is attractive at 9%, in our view. 



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Paragon REIT

Positive reversions eroded by interest cost


■ Management expects the positive reversion trend to continue in Singapore.

■ FY23 Singapore tenant sales -2% yoy, obscured by 9 months of non-trading by Saint Laurent at Paragon, excluding which tenant sales would be flat.

■ Reiterate Hold on limited upside. FY24F DPU yield of 5.3% lags peers.



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CapitaLand Int. Comm. Trust (CICT SP)

Delivering growth


Topline growth more than offsets higher funding cost CICT reported 2H DPU of 5.45cts, +1.7% YoY. FY DPU of 10.75cts, +1.6% YoY was c.1% below cons./our est. Organic growth and full-year contribution of acquired assets was partially offset by higher borrowing costs. Occupancy rose while retail reversions gained strength. Singapore supported portfolio value. Focus is on asset enhancements (AEI) and proactive portfolio management. We lift DPU estimates and combined with a lower discount rate, raise our DDM-based TP to SGD2.10. Maintain BUY.



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