Sembcorp Industries – Conventional Energy drive improved operational performance
- FY21 net profit of $300mn was above our estimates, at 146% of FY21e. The beat came from higher revenue from Conventional Energy, which surpassed our expectations on the back of better spark and dark spreads particularly in 4Q21.
- 85% of SEIL’s thermal plant capacity now comprises mid- and long- term power purchase agreements (PPAs). We have penciled in a reversal of the losses from its SEIL 2 plant from FY23e.
- Net gearing declined by more than 20% of our FY21e forecasts. Free cash flow rose 71% YoY as better operating performance drove higher net cash from operating activities, which were used to amortise its loans.
- We upgrade to ACCUMULATE from NEUTRAL with higher target price of $2.94. We raise FY22e PATMI by 6.8% as we bake in higher profits from Conventional Energy for FY22. Our target price is raised to $2.94 as we roll forward our valuation to 1.2x FY22e P/BV, the average of its peers.
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Frencken Group (FRKN SP) 2H21: Results In Line; Semiconductor Remains Key Driver In 2022
Frencken’s 2H21 earnings of S$27.4m (+14.9% yoy, -12.6% hoh) took full-year net profit to S$58.7m (+38%), meeting estimates. In 2021, the semiconductor sub-segment (+55.6%) led positive operating leverage on sustained demand for lithography systems. Expected ROE uplift from top-line expansion to continue into 2022-24, supported by streamlining of operations and cost initiatives, with three-year EPS CAGR of 18.9% over the period. Maintain BUY with target price of S$2.06.
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Civmec (CVL SP) Laggard To Commodity And Defence Peers Despite Having Good Sector Exposure
Civmec’s ytd share price performance of -1% is laggard vs its commodities peers (Rex +43%, RH Petrogas +99%, SMM +15%, Geo Energy +54%). To recap, Civmec is one of Australia’s leading engineering players, serving key sectors including defence and resources. Its clients include Chevron, Rio Tinto, Alcoa, BHP and Thyssenkrupp. Civmec should see margin expansion as its clients will benefit from the high commodity prices. We raise our FY22F EPS and target price by 10% to S$1.08. Maintain BUY.
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Golden Agri-Resources Singapore | Consumer Staples
Rating HOLD (as at 3 March 2022) Last Close SGD 0.31 Fair Value SGD 0.32 Boosted by strong CPO prices • FY21 net profit of USD476m • Targeting FFB to grow 5% YoY • Full-year dividend of 1.605 S cents
Investment thesis Golden-Agri’s (GAR) FY21 results beat expectations due to stronger crude palm oil (CPO) market prices and better-than-expected margins. GAR’s FY21 revenue rose 44% YoY to USD10.2b while EBITDA increased 81% YoY to USD1.2b. PATMI grew significantly by USD444m YoY to USD476m in FY21. A final dividend of 1.077 S cents per share was declared, bringing full-year dividend to 1.605 S cents. Management expects Fresh fruit production (FFB) to grow 5% YoY and flattish cost of production at ~USD300 per tonne for FY22. CPO prices could remain supported by tight global edible oil supply, production challenges and improving consumption demand. After adjustments, our fair value estimate increases from SGD0.29 to SGD0.32.
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