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Telecom Sector

Re-setting expectations


• Assuming COVID-19’s impact lingers throughout 2020, we cut our earnings forecasts by 9-10% for Singtel and StarHub

• Netlink is our top pick for earning resilience and ~5.8% yield. We also like Singtel for ~5.4% dividend yield, nearly +2 standard deviation (SD) of its mean and StarHub for 7% yield (near +1SD of its mean)

• Key risk will be stocks dropping to our bear-case valuation leading to a potential loss of 10% to 15%.


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CSE Global

Covid-19 and low crude oil prices; priced in


■ We think value in CSE is emerging as it now trades below its 2014-19 average 12M forward mean, and closer to trough of 7.9x P/E in Dec 2018.

■ Lower crude oil prices and capped activity levels warrant conservatism in our forecasts. But the c.36% share price plunge YTD has likely priced this in.

■ We think the risk-reward ratio is favourable at current levels. Reiterate Add, with a lower TP of S$0.45, now based on 11x CY21F EPS.


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Singapore retail landlords

In for a rough ride


• Suspension of Entertainment and Leisure businesses till end April-20 will impact overall retail scene

• Retail landlords face operational uncertainties as malls cope with tighter measures (shorter operating hours and higher social distancing measures) or closures

• Affected businesses may seek more help and rebates in our view

• Sensitivity analysis: Our FY20F DPU estimates could drop by 4-13% (vs 2-4% previously) to factor in the impact of above measures


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Enough Selling al-Ready!


• Interest expense savings from early refinancing; no refinancing in 2020

• Earnings relatively sheltered for now; retail tenants facing more challenges

• Long-term goals still intact despite a pause in near-term inorganic growth plans


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings4.220-0.070
Avi-Tech Electronics0.465-
Best World Int.1.360-
China Sunsine0.315-0.005
CNMC GoldMine0.3600.015
CSE Global0.525-0.010
Food Empire0.560-0.010
Golden Energy0.155-
GSS Energy0.062-0.002
ISDN Holdings0.3950.030
IX Biopharma0.2900.010
JB Foods0.5650.015
KSH Holdings0.340-0.005
Medtecs Intl0.970-0.030
Moya Asia0.070-0.002
Nordic Group0.2200.010
Oxley Holdings0.215-
REX International0.184-0.003
Sing Holdings0.370-0.005
Straco Corp.0.495-
Sunningdale Tech1.180-0.020
Sunpower Group0.530-0.005
The Trendlines0.108-0.002
Tiong Seng0.160-
Uni-Asia Group0.470-
Yangzijiang Shipbldg0.970-

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