Excerpts from KGI Securities report

Analyst: Joel Ng
 
bigmover4.17Overburden removal at GEAR's mine. NextInsight file photo

Golden Energy & Resources

Share price: 
42 c

Target: 78 c

Firm coal prices. GEAR achieved an ASP of US$42.6/tonne in the quarter, higher than the benchmark ICI4 coal index, which averaged US$40.1/tonne in the same period.

In comparison, our long-term coal price forecast is US$40/tonne. Our 
coal price assumption is also at a 10% discount to the 8-year average of the 4,200kcal Indonesian coal price.

Valuation & Action

JoelNg10.16“The group surprised us by declaring a maiden 0.8 cent dividend for the first half, translating into an annualised yield of 4.0%.”
-- Joel Ng (photo)
Analyst, KGI Securities

GEAR’s current price assumes long-term coal price of US$34/tonne and a US$22/tonne cash cost.

This price would mean a 20% discount to the 8-year 
4200 kcal Indonesian coal price average and a US$22/tonne cash cost (it achieved US$21 in 1H17 and US$20 in FY16) to arrive at GEAR’s current share price (see Figure 3 for our DCF calculation).

We believe these assumptions 
seriously undervalue GEAR’s long-term potential given its free cash flow generating capabilities and track record in consistently increasing its coal production every year over the past five years. We maintain our BUY recommendation with an unchanged DCF-derived TP of S$0.78.

Risks
Decline in coal prices due to weaker demand/increased production from China and India. Regulatory risks in Indonesia, which we believe is offset by GEAR’s strong Indonesian parentage.

Our DCF valuation is dependent on GEAR meeting 
its production targets as set out in the Independent Qualified Persons’ Report.

Watch NextInsight's video of GEAR's port operations -->

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