ANALYSTS SAY: Buy, Sell, Hold (24 Oct 2016)

Cache Logistics Trust Takes a hit from Schenker Megahub SINGAPORE | REAL ESTATE (REIT) | RESULTS

 S$28.05mn Gross revenue exceeded our forecast of S$26.94mn by 4.1%

 1.847 cents DPU missed our forecast of 1.977 cents by 6.6%

 1.847 cents DPU in line if we exclude our assumption of capital distribution component

 S$36.1mn fair value adjustment applied to 51 Alps Avenue (Schenker Megahub)

 Lease expiry profile is manageable, significant lease expiries only in 2018

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Triyards Holdings (ETL SP) 4QFY16: Preparing For A Better Future Triyards’ 4QFY16 earnings were significantly below expectations, mainly due to a 8.9ppt drop in gross margin.

We expect lower gross margins of 15-17% going forward with lesser high-margin projects. While earnings will drop due to this project-mix diversification, the move strengthens its brand equity for the future. We cut net profit forecasts by 44-48% as we remove a US$175m liftboat order and lower contract win assumptions.

Maintain BUY on valuations with a lower target price of S$0.41.

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Frasers Centrepoint Trust

Continued volatility from NP AEI

■ 4Q/FY16 DPU of 2.81/11.76 Scts in line with expectations at 23.9%/99.8% of our forecast.

■ Positive rental reversions offset by lower occupancies at NP and CCP.

■ Expect deceleration in earnings momentum to trough in FY17 as NP AEI is scheduled to be completed in Sep 17. ■ Low gearing provides deep capacity to explore inorganic growth prospects.

■ Maintain Add with a higher target price of S$2.28.

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City Developments (CIT SP) PPS 3 for Nouvel 18 Maintain HOLD;

Key stock overhang lifted There was little surprise in CityDev’s announcement of its third PPS or profit participation securities. While the scheme’s ASP of SGD2,750 psf beat our SGD2,500 psf assumption, a mere 3cts uplift for its pro-forma NTA suggests our cost estimates may have been too low. We drop FY16 EPS by 2% and our TP slightly to SGD9.42, still based on a 20% discount to RNAV. While we believe successful navigation of its QC deadline has removed a near-term overhang, we maintain HOLD on limited stock catalysts. With SGD0.8b of cash unlocked, we believe the market will now focus on its capital deployment. We prefer CapitaLand (BUY, TP SGD3.93) for sector exposure.

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Raffles Medical Group: 3Q16 PATMI up 4%

Raffles Medical Group’s 3Q16 revenue grew 17.5% YoY to S$119.3m as both the Healthcare and Hospital Services divisions saw their segment revenue increase 39.7% and 6.0%, respectively. This was driven by higher patient load, expansion of clinic network, more specialist consultants as well as from International SOS (MC Holdings) and its subsidiaries (MCH). Excluding contribution from MCH, the group’s revenue was up 7.9%. However, overall revenue growth was offset by higher staff costs as well as higher consumption of inventories and consumables. As a result, PATMI was up 4.0% to S$16.2m. 9M16 revenue of S$355.1m and PATMI of S$48.4m formed 74% and 65% of our full year estimates respectively, while we keep in mind that 4Q is typically a stronger quarter. Pending an analyst briefing later, maintain HOLD with fair value estimate of S$1.54.